2023 PGA Championship Odds: Patrick Cantlay Headlines 3 Early Picks

As we head into the second golf major of 2023, the story from the AT&T Byron Nelson was the breakthrough of Jason Day, who captured his first win on the PGA Tour in five years.

It's been a long road back for the Australian. Despite playing superb golf this year, Day has struggled to find his way into Sunday contention. Day's triumph marks a return to the top of the game — and I'd be remiss not to note that it came on Mother's Day (his mom passed away last year). Their story is one that makes golf great, and it's awesome to see a return to the winner's circle for the former World No. 1, especially on a day so important to him.

While the field in Texas lacked firepower, we will not have that issue in Rochester, N.Y., for the 2023 PGA Championship. The best in the game — across all tours — are set to tee it up at Oak Hill.

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This course will host the tournament for the first time since Jason Dufner's win in 2013. It sets up differently this time around as over 200 yards have been added to the championship tees; new bentgrass greens were also installed in 2019.

Though it's been 10 years, I believe we can gather solid information from that 2013 tournament as some of the best ball strikers of that era — Dufner, Jim Furyk and Henrik Stenson — were at the top. They weren't known for their putting, which may just be my excuse to target the same guys I do every week on "Team No Putt."

I'm looking for ball-striking types to be the first players on my card for the PGA Championship. The length added to the course will be a factor, but while many will be dialing in on the longest hitters, I'm going to look at total driving. Distance is always a factor at this level, and I think we need a combination of distance and accuracy to find success at Oak Hill Country Club.

First Look

Patrick Cantlay +2200 (DraftKings)

It's an interesting odds board, especially on DraftKings where there are no players in the teens — just the top three in the world with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler at +750 and Rory McIlroy at +1200. It then drops all the way down to +2200 for Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas. The first two interest me a bit, but it's Cantlay who really stands out.

He is second on TOUR in the aforementioned Total Driving metric and first in SG: Off the Tee over the last three months. As an added bonus, Cantlay's clear top putting surface is bentgrass.

I will be jumping on Cantlay immediately as he is a player I expect to settle in the mid-teens for odds when things reset on Monday.

Pick: Patrick Cantlay +2100

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Tony Finau +2900 (FanDuel)

As we found out last year, we can't put it past Tony Finau to win in consecutive starts. There was a time not too long ago when we wondered if he would ever win again — now he has five victories in less than two years.

While many of those victories have come in less-than-stellar events, he does have a playoff win at the Northern Trust to his name. That just reiterates the fact that he can get it done against the best.

Finau is still missing that major breakthrough, but I wouldn't be surprised if it came in New York. He has the style of game that can get it done at Oak Hill as his ball striking has always been top notch.

The ball striking and play off the tee, which ranks 17th in Total Driving, has me interested going into this major. When I add in the fact that he is carrying the confidence of a win and some great splits on bentgrass greens, it makes Finau a nice value at +2900.

Pick: Tony Finau +2900

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Max Homa +4000 (BetRivers)

When I see odds that are just too long, I'm willing to toss out the stats and simply bet the player. Max Homa at +4000 is one of those.

He's a proven winner at this level with a skillset that, when right, could be a perfect fit for the course at Oak Hill. We are getting him at longer odds than players ahead of him who don't have a win at this level and without the pedigree of closing out victories.

Homa is a long and accurate player off the tee with top-tier ball striking throughout his bag. He hasn't been at his best of late, but a top-10 finish at a big course like Quail Hollow really shows he isn't too far off.

I'm willing to look past the issues he's had in majors and just simply bet the number.

Pick: Max Homa +3600

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