2023 Travelers Championship Best Bets: Expert Picks for Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama & Tommy Fleetwood

2023 Travelers Championship Best Bets: Expert Picks for Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama & Tommy Fleetwood article feature image

Via Keith Birmingham/Getty Images. Pictured: Russell Henley tees of at the 12th tee during round 2 of the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at the Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles on Friday, June 16, 2023.

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Travelers Championship odds board and found their favorite picks.

Along with the Open Championship, the Travelers Championship is one of just two designated events remaining on the PGA Tour before the FedExCup Playoffs, so there is a very strong field this week in Cromwell, Connecticut, even despite this being a cross-country event the week after the U.S. Open.

Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets. Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews for the 2023 Travelers Championship below, including picks for Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama & more.

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Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Denny McCarthy
  • Murphy: Gary Woodland
  • Vincenzi: C.T. Pan
  • Aguiar: Sungjae Im

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Wyndham Clark
  • Murphy: Wyndham Clark
  • Vincenzi: Sahith Theegala
  • Aguiar: Denny McCarthy

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Patrick Rodgers
  • Murphy: Brian Harman
  • Vincenzi: Justin Suh
  • Aguiar: K.H. Lee

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: TPC River Highlands used to be a place where guys like J.J. Henry, Fredrik Jacobson and Ken Duke could pull off a longshot victory, but in recent years it’s become the domain of the big boys, with Dustin Johnson, Harris English (who was playing like an elite-level player at the time) and Xander Schauffele winning the last three.

Now operating as a designated event, the pride of Central Connecticut will boast the best field in its storied history, which only increases the chances that another elite player emerges this week.

Aguiar: TPC River Highlands is a unique course that many may expect to play one way but actually generates a rather distinctive output that bucks the conventional wisdom of the yardage on the scorecard.

That is not to say that the 6,841-yard measurement and smaller-than-average greens won't present some of that short-game and mid-iron play that you would anticipate popping to the forefront of the discussion.

Still, after analyzing the data, the one unique characteristic I noticed came down to the off-the-tee totals, which received a boost from 15.3% to 18.3% when discussing the dispersion of scoring for the course.

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2023 Travelers Championship Picks

Sobel: Russell Henley Top 10 +350 (FanDuel)

I listed Patrick Cantlay as my favorite top-tier outright play this week — but only because he was twice the price of Scottie Scheffler, though I believe this could be the event where Scheffler finally putts just a little bit better and turns all those recent close calls into a three-shot victory.

Instead of trying to guess one way or the other, I’ll play it a little safer with Russell Henley, who continues to be one of the game’s underrated ball-strikers. He’s now gained strokes with his irons in eight consecutive starts, and in half of those he’s gained at least 1.31 strokes per round.

The putter has actually been showing flashes of heating up, too, as he’s above field average in six of his last seven.

That should all add up to a final position on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday for a guy whose performance continues to outweigh the little attention he receives.

Murphy: Tommy Fleetwood +3300 (BetRivers)

It’s really hard to ignore Tommy Fleetwood's play over the past few weeks. He certainly had to shake off some of the hangover that was his playoff loss at the RBC Canadian Open, and that led to a slow start at last week’s U.S. Open.

Fleetwood got his game back in shape in style on Sunday at LACC, firing the round of the day with a 7-under 63 that was two shots better than the rest of the field. He still managed to leave at least one out there, too, as he totally yipped a short birdie putt to close his day at the 18th hole that would’ve tied the lowest round ever in a major championship (62).

Tommy is playing some outstanding golf of late, and this is the right type of course to go back to the well on him. We are still getting a solid number midway through the week at +3300 for Fleetwood, who seems close to breaking through for that elusive first win stateside.

Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama +6500 (FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama’s health will always be a question in 2023, but I consider this to be a “bet the number” play. Although he really struggled on Sunday at the U.S. Open, that shouldn’t overshadow what he did all week at Los Angeles Country Club.

For the week, Matsuyama gained 8.6 strokes on approach, which led the field. He struggled mightily with the putter, which is no surprise. He lost six strokes putting, which isn’t completely abnormal, but it’s not something I expect him to repeat two weeks in a row.

The 2021 Masters winner has put together consistent ball-striking numbers, which are a cause for optimism as he’s gained an average of 7.1 strokes from tee to green and 4.2 strokes on approach over his past five starts.

This will be Matsuyama’s first trip to TPC River Highlands, but the course should fit him pretty well. He ranks 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye designs and finished fifth at THE PLAYERS earlier this season.

This number is far too big for a player of Matsuyama’s caliber.

Aguiar: K.H. Lee 68th or Better -120 (bet365)

TPC Lee being overlooked at a TPC property? Wild times.

We see K.H. Lee’s weighted scoring, proximity totals and tee-to-green numbers increase in projection for this course, which is one of the reasons his upside always sees a slight increase when given these TPC layouts.

Bet365 pushing this bet out to 68th or better shows the general lack of intrigue for the 31-year-old this week, and while his statistical profile isn’t perfect for obvious reasons (most notably his poor approach play at the Memorial and the U.S. Open), I always trust him a little more than usual when he can use his around-the-green game on smaller-than-average greens.

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