2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Best Bets for PGA National

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Best Bets for the PGA Tour's ninth event of 2024 at PGA National (The Champion).

After sweeping their four best bets last week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta, our golf betting experts are back with Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches best bets.

Jason Sobel, Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch and Matt Gannon have picks for Russell Henley, Robert MacIntyre, Stephan Jaeger, Carson Young and more as we break down our 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Best Bets.

2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Best Bets

Jason Sobel: Robert MacIntyre Top 20 +400 (FanDuel)

I listed Bobby Mac in my weekly preview as my favorite outright play with longer odds, at 150-1 on Monday morning, but I’ll dial back a few notches and take him for a more conservative top-20 ticket at +400 as my best bet. We’ve received more evidence that the lefty is ready to bring his best stuff stateside, as he finished in a tie for sixth last week in Mexico and has now gained strokes both off the tee and with his approach shots in three straight starts.

It was a bit of a slow start for the Scotsman in his PGA Tour rookie campaign, but he’s got things going in the right direction now. I honestly expected his number to be half of this initial price (and it might get there before Thursday’s opening round), so jump quickly at 150-1 (now available at a market-best +12000 at bet365) on a player who certainly has the talent to win here – and even quicker on this top-20 number.

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Spencer Aguiar: Stephan Jaeger +4000 (FanDuel)

If you can shop around and find a fade against Matt Kuchar in the head-to-head market, that would likely be my favorite route. However, I don't see much value on this board.

For the sake of playing by the rules, let's go with Stephan Jaeger at 40-1 to win this event since the only three wagers I have at all would be Chesson Hadley over Kuchar at -125 (you have to shop around), Christiaan Bezuidenhout to win at +6600 and Jaeger to win.

Jaeger's 22 consecutive made cuts will blend well with his two top-three finishes over the last three starts, and it might finally be time for the German to win on the PGA Tour when looking into the trending stats.

Nick Bretwisch: Carson Young Top 40 +150 (FanDuel)

Carson Young checks the course-history box with a T29 here in his debut last season and enters the 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches as one of the safer yet high-upside risers in my modeling. He’s been on a ball-striking tear and finds fairways with ease, so he should have no issues succeeding on the fast Bermuda greens. He’s also in the top 15 for my Expected Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green this week.

Matt Gannon: Byeong Hun An Top 20 +150 (DraftKings)

Ben An is yet to miss a cut in 2024 and has played some really solid golf in that stretch. He is coming off gaining over seven strokes from tee to green in the loaded Genesis Invitational field. An has played a ton at PGA National and has finished in the top five twice in his five starts here. He has hit the ball well every single time he has played at PGA National and has shown flashes on the putting surfaces.

An is in as good of form as he has been in his PGA Tour career and should be ready to contend at a course that has treated him well. Finishing in the top 20 should not be an issue.

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2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Russell Henley +2700
• Spencer Aguiar: Stephan Jaeger +4000
• Nick Bretwisch: Tom Kim +3000
• Matt Gannon: Russell Henley +2700

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Robert MacIntyre +12000
• Aguiar: Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6600
• Bretwisch: Chan Kim +15000
• Gannon: Ryan Fox +12000

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Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Rory McIlroy +850
• Aguiar: Billy Horschel +11000
• Bretwisch: Taylor Pendrith +12000
• Gannon: Eric Cole +2700

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Stephan Jaeger +4000
• Aguiar: Min Woo Lee +3700
• Bretwisch: Corey Conners +3700
• Gannon: Cameron Young +2400

Trend That Guides Your 2024 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Betting Strategy

Aguiar: The volatility of the water on 15 holes at PGA National transformed most books into playing things ultra-conservative regarding pricing in all markets this week. You don't have to look any further than 18 players landing between 22-1 and 50-1 on the outright board, which doesn't even include the high-end return of Rory McIlroy at 8-1.

To me, this felt like a negative EV dart throw tournament because of those factors. I would have been fine taking shots and embracing the erratic nature of the water if we had received better value, but it is hard to make bets when matchups aren't readily available, placement totals are condensed value-wise, and everyone in the outright sector is jumbled into one coagulated mess.

There are weeks to take an extra stand in exposure, but this isn't one of those for me. Remember, the bets you sometimes don’t place are more profitable than the ones you do.

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Gannon: Accuracy and precision will be key to success around PGA National. If you watched any coverage of last week's Mexico Open, you will see the exact opposite style of golf this week. Any drives or approaches slightly offline may find a watery grave as PGA National has a PGA Tour-high 15 holes with water, which means double bogey is lurking on every hole.

Besides accuracy, bogey avoidance and scrambling will also key. There will be a run where your golfers make a bogey or two, which is fine, but avoiding the big numbers around here is key.