AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: How to Bet the Final Round

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: How to Bet the Final Round article feature image

Early in Saturday’s third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Dustin Johnson appeared set to run away with the tournament

But the No. 1 player in the world saw a four-shot advantage slip away playing Pebble Beach (one of the three courses the tournament utilizes), while Ted Potter Jr. fired a 62 on Monterrey Peninsula. Those two enter the final round tied at 14-under par.

Johnson is the odds-on favorite at -110, while Potter comes in at +1000. Jason Day and Jon Rahm are sandwiched between that pair. Day is at +350 and is two shots back, while Rahm is +900 and trails by three.

It feels like Johnson should be able to finish this out. He’s played well at Pebble Beach his whole career, and it should be a relatively calm day until the late afternoon, when the wind picks up a bit.

With little wind early, there’s a chance someone could shoot a 65 or 66, but even with that, a player down the leaderboard would need Johnson to shoot 71 or 72 to have a chance at a playoff — but he just shot 70 in more difficult conditions than we’ll see on Sunday. You can probably pencil him in for about a 70 again, so you’d need to look at players who enter the fourth round at 10-under or better to find someone who can track him down.

Fourth Round Betting Value

Outside of Day and Rahm, there really isn’t too much to look at in that range. Patrick Rodgers would be the only one I’d consider, at +2500. He’s a volatile player who can rack up a bunch of birdies pretty quickly, and if he’s driving it well, he has the length to take apart the course; Rodgers was 18th in average driving distance in 2017. That could set up a lot of wedge opportunities and give him the chance to attack the Par 5s in two.

That said, Rodgers has shown from this spot that he’s far more likely to spray the ball, highlighted by his ranking of 176th in driving accuracy this past season, and fall down the leaderboard. This was his first made cut in three months after he missed the weekend in his four previous events. It’s tough to know whether he’ll be firing on all cylinders to try and track down the big names, or if he’ll be content to lay back a bit and make sure he gets a good pay check and the important FedEx Cup points that come with it.

Top Photo: Dustin Johnson

Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Odds via Bovada on Feb. 10