BMW Championship Sleeper Picks: Jason Kokrak, Russell Henley Among Our Top Longshot Bets
Jason Kokrak ranks fifth in the field in driving distance over the last 75 rounds. Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images.
- Our staff reveals their top sleeper picks for the 2020 BMW Championship, which tees off Thursday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Find out why Jason Kokrak, Russell Henley, Cameron Smith and Adam Long are among our favorite longshot bets at Olympia Fields Country Club.
The 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia, Ill.
Dustin Johnson, fresh off his 30-under performance at The Northern Trust, is the clear betting favorite at +800 but there is some serious firepower in this field. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger and Rory McIlroy are all between +1000 and +2000.
Finding a longshot winner in a field this deep will be really tough, but that’s the point. It’s not supposed to be easy.
With that in mind, here are our favorite sleepers for the 2020 BMW Championship:
Adam Long +15000 ($10 bet wins $1,500)
Getting into the BMW is a nice benefit for the 70 players who have fared well enough over the course of the season to advance this far.
Getting into the TOUR Championship, though, can be life-changing for certain players who will qualify for each of next year’s four majors, the Sentry Tournament of Champions and be able to set their schedule however they’d like. Each year, there are a few surprises in the field at East Lake and this year won’t be any different.
At 27th in the standings entering this week, Long has an inside track on making this happen – and it potentially couldn’t come at a better place for a guy who grew up in the Midwest and should’ve had this one circled on his calendar for a while.
No, I wouldn’t bet the house on him outright this week, but he could be a useful play in top-10/20 props and for DFS lineups.
Russell Henley (+8000)
Henley has been consistently gaining strokes with his approach over the past few weeks and he’s starting to contend a bit now that his putting has come around.
I don’t know if he can win outright in a field this deep, but another top-10 finish could definitely be in play.
Jason Kokrak (+10000)
After a nasty bout of missed cuts and a withdraw at The Memorial, Kokrak has returned to form with a couple of top-15 finishes in his last two starts. The Xavier University alumni gained 7.8 strokes Tee to Green at the Northern Trust so I’m buying into his resurgence.
Kokrak is long off the tee and finished second in Greens in Regulation (GIR) from 200+ yards out in 2018 and 2019, so he has the tools to play well at a long course like Olympia Fields.
Kokrak is also on the outside looking in for a spot in the TOUR Championship, so I expect him to be motivated this week.
Cameron Smith (+11000)
At the Northern Trust, Cameron Smith had his best ball-striking week since the 2017 Wyndham Championship.
The Aussie gained 7.4 strokes tee to green and 6.5 strokes on approach. Coming in at 26th in the FedEx Cup standings, Cam will be motivated to have a good finish this week to cash his ticket to East Lake.
Smith has had some good finishes on difficult golf courses in the past: In 2020 he won the Sony Open in Hawaii with a finishing score of -11, and finished tied 4th at the 2015 U.S. Open. He has also had some recent FedEx Cup Playoff success while making it to East Lake in 2018.
Winning the BMW Championship would be a tall task but I expect the 52nd ranked player in the world to have a strong showing at Olympia Fields.