2018 British Open: Paul Casey Is a Better DFS Play Than Bet

Credit:

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul Casey

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds. This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Paul Casey’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $8,700 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): N/A, T-47, T-74, MC, T-11

Odds: +4000 to win, +300 top-10 finish, +150 top-20 finish

Best Odds Value: +4000 to win

Best Matchup Value: Casey (-130) over Tyrrell Hatton

Tee Times: 5:20 a.m. ET (Thursday); 10:21 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

On paper, Casey has everything we want at the Open Championship. His ability to gain strokes off the tee and with the approach will make him a popular play. For some reason, however, when it comes time to close on Sunday, Casey has a history of fading. If you want to back him, DFS is probably the area, but in the 33-1 betting range, it’s tough to see any value in banking on a victory.


The Metrics

Here’s how Casey ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: 2nd
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-4th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 8th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: 33rd
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 4th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-24th

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

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