2018 British Open: Fade Rafa Cabrera-Bello in Matchup Bets

Credit:

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rafa Cabrera-Bello

For analysis of the top 90 golfers in the British Open field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics and the betting odds. This isn’t meant to imply every player is worth a bet; we’re simply showing the most efficient way to wager on each golfer should you so choose.


Rafa Cabrera-Bello’s British Open Odds

DFS Pricing: $7,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel

British Open History (2013-17): T-21, MC, T-40, T-39, T-4

Odds: +12,500 to win, +600 top-10 finish, +300 top-20 finish

Best Odds Value: +300 top-20 finish

Best Matchup Value: N/A

Tee Times: 3:03 a.m. ET (Thursday); 8:04 a.m. ET (Friday)

For more British Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

The 25th-ranked player in the world has not been seen on the PGA Tour since the U.S. Open and has missed his last three cuts in Europe with only one round in the 60s during that stretch. Cabrera-Bello is known as a consistent ball-striker, but his recent form fails to show that he is ready to tackle the conditions at Carnoustie. The missed cuts in Europe against substantially weaker fields than what he’d see on the PGA Tour are a red flag for me, as players normally do not rediscover great play under the lights of a major championship. Consider shorting Cabrera-Bello in any head-to-head matchups you can find.


The Metrics

Here’s how Cabrera-Bello ranks in the British Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-47th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-72nd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 16th
  • Long-Term Greens in Regulation: T-58th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 6th
  • Long-Term Putts Per Round: T-67th

Want more British Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 90 best golfers in the field.

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