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RSM Classic 2023 Picks, Updated Odds: Bet J.T. Poston & Alex Smalley

RSM Classic 2023 Picks, Updated Odds: Bet J.T. Poston & Alex Smalley article feature image

Via Getty Images. Pictured: J.T. Poston (left) and Alex Smalley (right).

Click to expand RSM Classic Odds via bet365
GolferRSM Classic Odds
Ludvig Aberg+1200
Russell Henley+1500
Brian Harman+2200
Cameron Young+2400
Corey Conners+2700
Eric Cole+2700
J.T. Poston+3000
Si Woo Kim+3500
Denny McCarthy+3500
Alex Noren+3800
Adam Svensson+3800
Brendon Todd+3800
Matt Kuchar+4500
Stephan Jaeger+4500
J.J. Spaun+4500
Taylor Pendrith+4500
Billy Horschel+4500
Justin Suh+5000
Chris Kirk+5000
Akshay Bhatia+5500
Alex Smalley+6000
Davis Thompson+6000
Harris English+6000
Keith Mitchell+6500
Luke List+6500
Camilo Villegas+6500
Nicholas Lindheim+6500
Ben Griffin+6500

GolferRSM Classic Odds
Thomas Detry+7500
Doug Ghim+7500
Mackenzie Hughes+7500
Adam Schenk+8000
Mark Hubbard+8000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+8500
Chesson Hadley+8500
Matti Schmid+9000
Taylor Montgomery+9000
Webb Simpson+10000
Matthew Nesmith+10000
Cameron Champ+11000
Carl Yuan+11000
Adam Long+11000
Austin Eckroat+11000
Vince Whaley+11000
Sam Ryder+11000
Dylan Wu+11000
Brandon Wu+12000
Ryan Moore+12000
Will Gordon+12000
Stewart Cink+12000
Ryan Palmer+12000
Nick Hardy+14000
Ben Kohles+14000
Kevin Streelman+14000
Nate Lashley+14000
Scott Stallings+14000
Callum Tarren+16000
Greyson Sigg+16000
Sam Stevens+16000

GolferRSM Classic Odds
Zach Johnson+17500
Carson Young+17500
Robby Shelton+17500
Austin Cook+17500
Tyler Duncan+17500
Padraig Harrington+18500
Lanto Griffin+18500
Peter Kuest+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Maverick McNealy+20000
Troy Merritt+20000
Martin Laird+20000
Kevin Yu+20000
Ben Martin+20000
Patton Kizzire+20000
Justin Lower+20000
Kevin Kisner+20000
Henrik Norlander+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Zac Blair+20000
MJ Daffue+22500
Kramer Hickok+22500
C.T. Pan+22500
Andrew Novak+22500
Austin Smotherman+22500
Kelly Kraft+22500
Grayson Murray+25000
Scott Piercy+25000
Aaron Baddeley+30000

GolferRSM Classic Odds
Kevin Roy+32500
Josh Teater+32500
Satoshi Kodaira+32500
Fred Biondi+32500
Doc Redman+32500
Tyson Alexander+35000
Zecheng Dou+35000
Charley Hoffman+35000
Francesco Molinari+35000
David Lingmerth+35000
Jimmy Walker+35000
Russell Knox+40000
Nicolas Echavarria+40000
Peter Malnati+40000
Brice Garnett+40000
Ryan Gerard+40000
Seung Yul Noh+45000
Tano Goya+45000
Kevin Chappell+45000
Kevin Tway+45000
Brent Grant+45000
Cameron Percy+45000
Ryan Armour+45000
Harrison Endycott+45000
Jason Dufner+45000
Brian Gay+60000
Sean O'Hair+60000
Dylan Frittelli+60000
Hank Lebioda+60000
Richy Werenski+60000
Jonas Blixt+60000

GolferRSM Classic Odds
Scott Harrington+60000
Chris Stroud+60000
Andrew Landry+60000
Ryan Brehm+60000
Wesley Bryan+60000
Kyle Westmoreland+60000
Harry Higgs+60000
Augusto Nunez+60000
Ben Taylor+60000
Max McGreevy+60000
Cody Gribble+60000
Sung Kang+60000
Matthias Schwab+60000
David Ford+60000
Trevor Cone+75000
Martin Trainer+75000
Trevor Werbylo+100000
William McGirt+100000
Jonathan Byrd+100000
Brian Stuard+125000
Jim Herman+200000
Michael Gligic+200000
Paul Haley II+200000
Ben Crane+250000
Ben Carr+300000
Ricky Barnes+300000
Nick Watney+300000
Davis Love III+500000

It doesn’t feel like so long ago that the annual PGA Tour season would conclude in a pro-am being played on two courses adjacent to Disney World, meaning players were competing for their livelihoods and ultimately losing their PGA Tour memberships in the shadows of the so-called happiest place on Earth.

Alright, so it’s been more than a decade since the sport’s greatest juxtaposition – the wild scenes of frustrated pros hurling clubs after poor shots on the heels of a failed season, all in front of mystified vacationing families in the gallery wearing Mickey Mouse ears and sucking down ice cream cones.

Since then, the season has ended either at the Wyndham Championship for those who didn’t play their best golf or at one of three subsequent playoff events, with the Tour Championship serving as the true season finale.

This year – and this year only – that honor goes to this week’s RSM Classic, creating similar plotlines to those aforementioned Disney years, as players try to retain their PGA Tour cards while competing in the otherwise laid-back, unhurried atmosphere of Sea Island.

If the recent trends continue, there should be plenty of narratives.

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It’s probably a coincidence that just as Hollywood has settled the writers’ strike, the PGA Tour scripts have been beefed up on Sunday afternoons, with Erik van Rooyen and Camilo Villegas claiming emotional, heartfelt victories – the type of success which transcends diehard golf fans and tugs on the sleeve of casuals who might even click away from NFL games to witness such feats in the wake of personal tragedy.

It would be duplicitous yet not unwise for bettors who regularly seek winning patterns to attempt to identify players who are competing this week with something bigger than golf weighing on their minds, though the prospect of many not having a full-time job next year should be enough to quench anyone’s thirst for the dramatic.

Once again, the RSM Classic will be contested on the Plantation (7,060 yards, par-72) and Seaside (7,005 yards, par-70) courses over the first two rounds, with the latter serving as the lone venue during the weekend. It’s a home game for some in this field, a quick drive for many others and an extremely high-pressure, impactful week for even more, as the final official, full-field event of 2023 represents a last-chance saloon for the rest of us to belly up to the bar and make some winning bets.

With that in mind, let’s get right to it, starting with a player who leapt off the page.

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RSM Classic Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

J.T. Poston (+3500)

I’ll be honest: When odds were first listed Monday morning, I expected J.T. Poston to be about 10 points shorter than his 35/1 number – and for those who like it, I’d act sooner rather than later, as it similarly wouldn’t surprise me if this price drops before Thursday’s opening round.

There’s a lot to like, too, as Poston has been posting some serious stats, with five top-seven finishes in eight starts over the past four months, the only one outside the top 25 coming at The Open Championship, which is obviously a different beast from the regularly scheduled PGA Tour venues.

It’s not just his results, either. Poston has gained strokes with his irons in the last seven of those eight starts and with his putter in all eight – the perfect combination to find success at this event.

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Speaking of which, a word of warning: He hasn’t enjoyed too much of it here, with five missed cuts in seven starts, though finishes of T14 and T21 within the last four years lead me to believe that we can still remain bullish on him at these courses.

There are a handful of players I like in this pricing range, though each one has a bit of a land-of-misfit-toys label about him – either they don’t quite fit these tracks or the form isn’t there or they simply haven’t played in a few months. For me, Poston’s name is the one that jumped off the page from the initial field list, and I only liked him more when offered this outright number.

Pick: J.T. Poston Outright +3500

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Alex Smalley (+6000)

In last week’s edition of the betting guide, I offered up Jason Dufner as my favorite outright with longer odds but backed that play by writing that it was a good week to play a longshot and listed a few other names who represented value, including Camilo Villegas, who won the event with a triple-digit price.

I feel very much the same way for this one, as Alex Smalley is worth a play at 60/1 (though I don’t like the 40/1 number being initially offered in some books), while Davis Riley (100/1), Robby Shelton (150/1) and Kramer Hickok (250/1) will each likely make their way onto my outright card, as well.

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It only makes sense to look further down the board at an event which has yielded winners of 40/1 or longer in each of the last half-dozen years, including three with triple-digit prices. (Adam Svensson at 125/1 last year; Robert Streb at 300/1 in 2020; and Tyler Duncan at 150/1 in 2019.)

I’ll cautiously play Smalley here after a T5 result last year while fresh off a T30 last week, but if you simply want to go big-ticket hunting, I’d never stand in your way, especially at a tournament which has shown a propensity for paying out some lottery winners.

Pick: Alex Smalley +6000 Outright

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RSM Classic One and Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Brian Harman (+1800)

Funny game, isn’t it? If you lined up Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young and Brian Harman – the top three on this week’s odds board – on the driving range and asked a non-golf fan to pick the most recent major champion, you’d likely hear two guesses before they got it right.

Part of Harman’s success is due to his tireless doggedness, part of it is due to his brilliant short-game prowess and part of it is simply due to the fact that this isn’t a game where the big, strong guys win every time.

Anyway, with a runner-up finish last year and four career top 15s at his annual home-game event, Harman is an excellent high-floor play with an obvious ceiling, as well.

Harris English (+5000)

This was never the most consistent year for Harris English, but when he played well, he really played well – T12 at the Genesis Invitational, T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T3 at the Wells Fargo, T12 at the Charles Schwab, T8 at the U.S. Open and T10 at the BMW Championship.

He hasn’t played since that last one on this list, 13 weeks ago, which is the sole reason why I’m a bit hesitant to offer him up for bigger and better things this week, but the number is tempting, and there’s surely some value here not only for OAD selections, but props and DFS as well.

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Ben Griffin (+7000)

There are some definitive correlations between the Country Club of Jackson, site of the recent Sanderson Farms Championship, and this week’s courses, even if the similarities only extend to shorter courses in the Southeast part of the country with Bermuda greens.

Ben Griffin’s runner-up finish at Jackson should offer up some good mojo for this one, as I wouldn’t be shocked to see him as a popular outright play at this number.

Grayson Murray (+13000)

The truth is, I probably should’ve listed Grayson Murray’s name alongside those of Davis Riley, Robby Shelton and Kramer Hickok above, as players with triple-digit odds who are worth a nibble this week.

At his worst, Murray will have you regretting ever using him in any format, but at his best, the wildly talented ball-striker can enjoy a spike performance on any given week. If you really want to get different in OADs – and really want to save everyone else – Murray owns a ton of upside.

RSM Classic Placement Picks

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Corey Conners (+650 for top-five finish)

Keep this note handy: I’m expecting a very, very big year for Corey Conners in 2024. (And don’t worry if you forget it; I’ll be reminding everyone throughout the next 12 months.) That might not mean he’s winning a major, but with a bevy of shorter-field signature events, I’d be willing to get a little action on the Canadian finally winning something bigger than the Valero Texas Open during the upcoming campaign.

Simply put, he’s too good from tee to green to not have a few above-average putting weeks lead to some more title contentions. Don’t be surprised if he gets next year off to a strong start at the end of the current one, as he’s finished between 10th and 37th in all four previous starts at the RSM.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Matt Kuchar (+425 for top-10 finish)

When last we saw Matt Kuchar, he was busy punctuating a roller-coaster of a performance at the World Wide Technology Championship with a hooked second shot into the par-5 final hole, his eventual par losing to Erik van Rooyen’s eagle.

That shouldn’t diminish the fact that he now owns three top 20s in his last four starts, and at 52nd in the Official World Golf Ranking, he’ll need a solid week to clinch a spot in the top 50 at year’s end and get back into the Masters for the first time in three years.

(By the way, check out Kuchar’s unassuming record at Augusta: From 2012 through 2017, he posted four top-eight finishes and never once missed the cut during that decade.) Camilo Villegas stepped on the gas pedal after his WWT runner-up, and Kuchar could come close to mirroring that result.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Stephan Jaeger (+210 for top-20 finish)

On a week when I’m recommending adding some longshot outrights to the card, you’ll want to balance that volatility with a few low-risk plays, and Stephan Jaeger for a top-20 finish makes a ton of sense. He’s missed this mark in each of his last three starts, but overall he has four top-20 results in his last nine starts, as he gains more notoriety for being one of the better high-floor options around.

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Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Ben Kohles (+230 for top-30 finish)

Oftentimes we’ll assess the prospects of Korn Ferry Tour grads and give a little extra love to those who are playing the PGA Tour for a first time and could become instant stars. Perhaps the better rationale, though, is to choose those who won’t be rookies and have been-there/done-that already.

That’s the case for Ben Kohles, who topped the KFT points list this season and should provide a nice floor in PGA Tour starts moving forward, as his two early-year wins were buoyed by four top-10s in his final five starts. Playing against the world’s best players shouldn’t faze a guy who’s done it before.


One player to finish in the top40

Tyson Alexander (+220 for top-40 finish)

It hasn’t been the greatest year for Tyson Alexander, who’s missed the cut in 17 of 27 starts and didn’t have anything better than a 20th-place finish until last week. That one, though, was a T8, and with his runner-up finish in Houston at the beginning of the season last fall, he’s got his card locked up for the next campaign, which should take the pressure off for this one.

RSM Classic DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Denny McCarthy

As soon as I posted the opening odds to social media on Monday morning, my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio buddy Will Haskett offered the one-word reply, “Denny!” with the emoji that I just learned is called “money-mouth face” using dollar-signs over the smiley-face’s eyes and green tongue.

I’m in no position to disagree with Haskett or his money-mouth face, so I’ll back up his thought with Denny McCarthy as a high-end DFS play, since SG: Putting is often a determining factor of success here and – just in case you hadn’t heard – McCarthy tends to be one of the better rock-rollers in the world.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Davis Riley

This one is admittedly more of a tournament play than for cash games, but Davis Riley owns the type of game which could vault him up this leaderboard for a few days. His results have only been average lately, with four made cuts in his last six starts but nothing better than T28, though I do think this could be a nice spot to find some leverage.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Kramer Hickok

With finishes of T13 and T15 the past two weeks, Kramer Hickok is coming on strong as the season is wrapping up. At 134th on the points list, he’ll need another strong result, but his history suggests that his best stuff comes in bunches, so don’t be afraid to keep riding him here.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Russell Henley and Eric Cole

Here’s my friendly annual PSA: Your favorite book “should” separate players in the FRL category based on the course they’re playing in the opening round. If not, take a shot on those competing on the Plantation, a par-72 as opposed to the par-70 of the Seaside, all of which makes for a wonky leaderboard during the first two rounds.

To wit: Last year, Cole Hammer was the first-round leader after posting an 8-under 64 on the Plantation, while Beau Hossler kinda/sorta trailed by two after posting a 6-under 64 on the Seaside.

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Since I’m writing this more than 24 hours before tee times will be released, I’ll offer up a couple of options in Russell Henley and Eric Cole, each of whom I also like for four-round investments, though I didn’t love their opening outright prices. (Henley is 25/1; Cole is 35/1.)

The FRL pattern of the fall portion of the schedule became a little less arbitrary with Alex Noren taking last week’s honors, so I’ll back the latest trend and stick with those not too far down the board this week.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Brendon Todd (+5000)

Last week, Brendon Todd opened at 16/1, good for second-favorite in the Bermuda field, and while a few others were priced down to catch him by first tee time Thursday morning, the price was a reflection of his performance, which had included three top-seven finishes in his previous six starts.

Riddle me this one, though: A week later, after a T20 result which yielded three rounds of 68 or better and heading to a venue where he’s once finished as high as fourth place, Todd’s initial price is more than triple that of a week ago. Granted, there are a few more big names in this field, but if you’re simply looking for value he owns plenty of it.

If you’re skittish of backing him as an outright, though – and for a guy who hasn’t won since going back-to-back five years ago, I don’t necessarily blame you – I think you can still take advantage of this value by backing him in head-to-head matchups against other similarly priced players. Specifically, I’d play him at even- or plus-money against the likes of Aaron Rai, Thomas Detry, Luke List or K.H. Lee.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Alex Noren (+3000), Billy Horschel (+4000), Chesson Hadley (+5500), Webb Simpson (+8000), Stewart Cink (+9000), Greyson Sigg (+13000), Robby Shelton (+15000), Tyler Duncan (+20000), Kelly Kraft (+30000), Doc Redman (+30000)

Around the World

The RSM Classic is hardly the most star-studded event in men’s golf this week, as the DP World Tour Championship is once again taking place in Dubai, on the 7,706-yard Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Unlike the RSM Classic, this hasn’t been a haven for longshots, as the list of the last 11 winners doesn’t include a player who hasn’t also won a major: Jon Rahm (three times), Rory McIlroy (twice), Henrik Stenson (twice), Matt Fitzpatrick (twice), Danny Willett and Collin Morikawa.

The suspense for the season-long title is already over, as McIlroy claimed that trophy, but let’s examine a few others who aren’t too far down the board.

Assuming we’re bypassing McIlroy (+400), Rahm (+500) and Viktor Hovland (+500), others in the 50-man field appear similarly short-priced – perhaps a warning to bettors that we collectively might not enjoy next year’s smaller-field signature events as much as we’d thought.

If I’m only betting one player and not sprinkling on a few outrights, Min Woo Lee (+1400) is the guy. I really liked him at the Zozo Championship a few weeks ago, contending at the time that he’s ready to win a few bigger titles, and while that one only landed a T6 finish, this could be the right spot to propel him to bigger and better things next year.

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Just a little bit further down the board, Nicolai Hojgaard (+2200) is my favorite of all the Hojgaards playing this week, fresh off a runner-up finish to Max Homa in South Africa.

I’d be worried that 7,700 yards is a bit too much for Shane Lowry (+2500), though a previous runner-up result and other top-10 finishes suggest that he’s long enough to contend here.

If you’d rather spend your money on those with more suitable odds, two stand out to me. Alexander Bjork (+5500) spent much of this summer looking like a potential Ryder Cup selection, with six top-eight results in seven starts at one point, and also finished runner-up here two years ago.

Victor Perez (+9000) is a world-class ball-striker who’s slowly starting to round into form, and unlike just about everyone else I’ve listed, he actually has an outright number that feels a bit palatable.

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