RSM Classic 2023 Picks, Updated Odds: Bet J.T. Poston & Alex Smalley

It doesn’t feel like so long ago that the annual PGA Tour season would conclude in a pro-am being played on two courses adjacent to Disney World, meaning players were competing for their livelihoods and ultimately losing their PGA Tour memberships in the shadows of the so-called happiest place on Earth.

Alright, so it’s been more than a decade since the sport’s greatest juxtaposition – the wild scenes of frustrated pros hurling clubs after poor shots on the heels of a failed season, all in front of mystified vacationing families in the gallery wearing Mickey Mouse ears and sucking down ice cream cones.

Since then, the season has ended either at the Wyndham Championship for those who didn’t play their best golf or at one of three subsequent playoff events, with the Tour Championship serving as the true season finale.

This year – and this year only – that honor goes to this week’s RSM Classic, creating similar plotlines to those aforementioned Disney years, as players try to retain their PGA Tour cards while competing in the otherwise laid-back, unhurried atmosphere of Sea Island.

If the recent trends continue, there should be plenty of narratives.

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.

It’s probably a coincidence that just as Hollywood has settled the writers’ strike, the PGA Tour scripts have been beefed up on Sunday afternoons, with Erik van Rooyen and Camilo Villegas claiming emotional, heartfelt victories – the type of success which transcends diehard golf fans and tugs on the sleeve of casuals who might even click away from NFL games to witness such feats in the wake of personal tragedy.

It would be duplicitous yet not unwise for bettors who regularly seek winning patterns to attempt to identify players who are competing this week with something bigger than golf weighing on their minds, though the prospect of many not having a full-time job next year should be enough to quench anyone’s thirst for the dramatic.

Once again, the RSM Classic will be contested on the Plantation (7,060 yards, par-72) and Seaside (7,005 yards, par-70) courses over the first two rounds, with the latter serving as the lone venue during the weekend. It’s a home game for some in this field, a quick drive for many others and an extremely high-pressure, impactful week for even more, as the final official, full-field event of 2023 represents a last-chance saloon for the rest of us to belly up to the bar and make some winning bets.

With that in mind, let’s get right to it, starting with a player who leapt off the page.

The must-have app for golf bettors

The best golf betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

RSM Classic Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

J.T. Poston (+3500)

I’ll be honest: When odds were first listed Monday morning, I expected J.T. Poston to be about 10 points shorter than his 35/1 number – and for those who like it, I’d act sooner rather than later, as it similarly wouldn’t surprise me if this price drops before Thursday’s opening round.

There’s a lot to like, too, as Poston has been posting some serious stats, with five top-seven finishes in eight starts over the past four months, the only one outside the top 25 coming at The Open Championship, which is obviously a different beast from the regularly scheduled PGA Tour venues.

It’s not just his results, either. Poston has gained strokes with his irons in the last seven of those eight starts and with his putter in all eight – the perfect combination to find success at this event.

Bet J.T. Poston outright at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.

Speaking of which, a word of warning: He hasn’t enjoyed too much of it here, with five missed cuts in seven starts, though finishes of T14 and T21 within the last four years lead me to believe that we can still remain bullish on him at these courses.

There are a handful of players I like in this pricing range, though each one has a bit of a land-of-misfit-toys label about him – either they don’t quite fit these tracks or the form isn’t there or they simply haven’t played in a few months. For me, Poston’s name is the one that jumped off the page from the initial field list, and I only liked him more when offered this outright number.

Pick: J.T. Poston Outright +3500

Bet Poston Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Alex Smalley (+6000)

In last week’s edition of the betting guide, I offered up Jason Dufner as my favorite outright with longer odds but backed that play by writing that it was a good week to play a longshot and listed a few other names who represented value, including Camilo Villegas, who won the event with a triple-digit price.

I feel very much the same way for this one, as Alex Smalley is worth a play at 60/1 (though I don’t like the 40/1 number being initially offered in some books), while Davis Riley (100/1), Robby Shelton (150/1) and Kramer Hickok (250/1) will each likely make their way onto my outright card, as well.

Bet Alex Smalley outright at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.

It only makes sense to look further down the board at an event which has yielded winners of 40/1 or longer in each of the last half-dozen years, including three with triple-digit prices. (Adam Svensson at 125/1 last year; Robert Streb at 300/1 in 2020; and Tyler Duncan at 150/1 in 2019.)

I’ll cautiously play Smalley here after a T5 result last year while fresh off a T30 last week, but if you simply want to go big-ticket hunting, I’d never stand in your way, especially at a tournament which has shown a propensity for paying out some lottery winners.

Pick: Alex Smalley +6000 Outright

Bet Smalley Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!

RSM Classic One and Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Brian Harman (+1800)

Funny game, isn’t it? If you lined up Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young and Brian Harman – the top three on this week’s odds board – on the driving range and asked a non-golf fan to pick the most recent major champion, you’d likely hear two guesses before they got it right.

Part of Harman’s success is due to his tireless doggedness, part of it is due to his brilliant short-game prowess and part of it is simply due to the fact that this isn’t a game where the big, strong guys win every time.

Anyway, with a runner-up finish last year and four career top 15s at his annual home-game event, Harman is an excellent high-floor play with an obvious ceiling, as well.

Harris English (+5000)

This was never the most consistent year for Harris English, but when he played well, he really played well – T12 at the Genesis Invitational, T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T3 at the Wells Fargo, T12 at the Charles Schwab, T8 at the U.S. Open and T10 at the BMW Championship.

He hasn’t played since that last one on this list, 13 weeks ago, which is the sole reason why I’m a bit hesitant to offer him up for bigger and better things this week, but the number is tempting, and there’s surely some value here not only for OAD selections, but props and DFS as well.

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.

Ben Griffin (+7000)

There are some definitive correlations between the Country Club of Jackson, site of the recent Sanderson Farms Championship, and this week’s courses, even if the similarities only extend to shorter courses in the Southeast part of the country with Bermuda greens.

Ben Griffin’s runner-up finish at Jackson should offer up some good mojo for this one, as I wouldn’t be shocked to see him as a popular outright play at this number.

Grayson Murray (+13000)

The truth is, I probably should’ve listed Grayson Murray’s name alongside those of Davis Riley, Robby Shelton and Kramer Hickok above, as players with triple-digit odds who are worth a nibble this week.

At his worst, Murray will have you regretting ever using him in any format, but at his best, the wildly talented ball-striker can enjoy a spike performance on any given week. If you really want to get different in OADs – and really want to save everyone else – Murray owns a ton of upside.

RSM Classic Placement Picks

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Corey Conners (+650 for top-five finish)

Keep this note handy: I’m expecting a very, very big year for Corey Conners in 2024. (And don’t worry if you forget it; I’ll be reminding everyone throughout the next 12 months.) That might not mean he’s winning a major, but with a bevy of shorter-field signature events, I’d be willing to get a little action on the Canadian finally winning something bigger than the Valero Texas Open during the upcoming campaign.

Simply put, he’s too good from tee to green to not have a few above-average putting weeks lead to some more title contentions. Don’t be surprised if he gets next year off to a strong start at the end of the current one, as he’s finished between 10^th and 37^th in all four previous starts at the RSM.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Matt Kuchar (+425 for top-10 finish)

When last we saw Matt Kuchar, he was busy punctuating a roller-coaster of a performance at the World Wide Technology Championship with a hooked second shot into the par-5 final hole, his eventual par losing to Erik van Rooyen’s eagle.

That shouldn’t diminish the fact that he now owns three top 20s in his last four starts, and at 52^nd in the Official World Golf Ranking, he’ll need a solid week to clinch a spot in the top 50 at year’s end and get back into the Masters for the first time in three years.

(By the way, check out Kuchar’s unassuming record at Augusta: From 2012 through 2017, he posted four top-eight finishes and never once missed the cut during that decade.) Camilo Villegas stepped on the gas pedal after his WWT runner-up, and Kuchar could come close to mirroring that result.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Stephan Jaeger (+210 for top-20 finish)

On a week when I’m recommending adding some longshot outrights to the card, you’ll want to balance that volatility with a few low-risk plays, and Stephan Jaeger for a top-20 finish makes a ton of sense. He’s missed this mark in each of his last three starts, but overall he has four top-20 results in his last nine starts, as he gains more notoriety for being one of the better high-floor options around.

ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Ben Kohles (+230 for top-30 finish)

Oftentimes we’ll assess the prospects of Korn Ferry Tour grads and give a little extra love to those who are playing the PGA Tour for a first time and could become instant stars. Perhaps the better rationale, though, is to choose those who won’t be rookies and have been-there/done-that already.

That’s the case for Ben Kohles, who topped the KFT points list this season and should provide a nice floor in PGA Tour starts moving forward, as his two early-year wins were buoyed by four top-10s in his final five starts. Playing against the world’s best players shouldn’t faze a guy who’s done it before.

Top-40

One player to finish in the top40

Tyson Alexander (+220 for top-40 finish)

It hasn’t been the greatest year for Tyson Alexander, who’s missed the cut in 17 of 27 starts and didn’t have anything better than a 20^th-place finish until last week. That one, though, was a T8, and with his runner-up finish in Houston at the beginning of the season last fall, he’s got his card locked up for the next campaign, which should take the pressure off for this one.

RSM Classic DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Denny McCarthy

As soon as I posted the opening odds to social media on Monday morning, my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio buddy Will Haskett offered the one-word reply, “Denny!” with the emoji that I just learned is called “money-mouth face” using dollar-signs over the smiley-face’s eyes and green tongue.

I’m in no position to disagree with Haskett or his money-mouth face, so I’ll back up his thought with Denny McCarthy as a high-end DFS play, since SG: Putting is often a determining factor of success here and – just in case you hadn’t heard – McCarthy tends to be one of the better rock-rollers in the world.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Davis Riley

This one is admittedly more of a tournament play than for cash games, but Davis Riley owns the type of game which could vault him up this leaderboard for a few days. His results have only been average lately, with four made cuts in his last six starts but nothing better than T28, though I do think this could be a nice spot to find some leverage.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Kramer Hickok

With finishes of T13 and T15 the past two weeks, Kramer Hickok is coming on strong as the season is wrapping up. At 134^th on the points list, he’ll need another strong result, but his history suggests that his best stuff comes in bunches, so don’t be afraid to keep riding him here.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Russell Henley and Eric Cole

Here’s my friendly annual PSA: Your favorite book “should” separate players in the FRL category based on the course they’re playing in the opening round. If not, take a shot on those competing on the Plantation, a par-72 as opposed to the par-70 of the Seaside, all of which makes for a wonky leaderboard during the first two rounds.

To wit: Last year, Cole Hammer was the first-round leader after posting an 8-under 64 on the Plantation, while Beau Hossler kinda/sorta trailed by two after posting a 6-under 64 on the Seaside.

Bet Cole & Henley FRL at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.

Since I’m writing this more than 24 hours before tee times will be released, I’ll offer up a couple of options in Russell Henley and Eric Cole, each of whom I also like for four-round investments, though I didn’t love their opening outright prices. (Henley is 25/1; Cole is 35/1.)

The FRL pattern of the fall portion of the schedule became a little less arbitrary with Alex Noren taking last week’s honors, so I’ll back the latest trend and stick with those not too far down the board this week.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Brendon Todd (+5000)

Last week, Brendon Todd opened at 16/1, good for second-favorite in the Bermuda field, and while a few others were priced down to catch him by first tee time Thursday morning, the price was a reflection of his performance, which had included three top-seven finishes in his previous six starts.

Riddle me this one, though: A week later, after a T20 result which yielded three rounds of 68 or better and heading to a venue where he’s once finished as high as fourth place, Todd’s initial price is more than triple that of a week ago. Granted, there are a few more big names in this field, but if you’re simply looking for value he owns plenty of it.

If you’re skittish of backing him as an outright, though – and for a guy who hasn’t won since going back-to-back five years ago, I don’t necessarily blame you – I think you can still take advantage of this value by backing him in head-to-head matchups against other similarly priced players. Specifically, I’d play him at even- or plus-money against the likes of Aaron Rai, Thomas Detry, Luke List or K.H. Lee.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Alex Noren (+3000), Billy Horschel (+4000), Chesson Hadley (+5500), Webb Simpson (+8000), Stewart Cink (+9000), Greyson Sigg (+13000), Robby Shelton (+15000), Tyler Duncan (+20000), Kelly Kraft (+30000), Doc Redman (+30000)

Around the World

The RSM Classic is hardly the most star-studded event in men’s golf this week, as the DP World Tour Championship is once again taking place in Dubai, on the 7,706-yard Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

Unlike the RSM Classic, this hasn’t been a haven for longshots, as the list of the last 11 winners doesn’t include a player who hasn’t also won a major: Jon Rahm (three times), Rory McIlroy (twice), Henrik Stenson (twice), Matt Fitzpatrick (twice), Danny Willett and Collin Morikawa.

The suspense for the season-long title is already over, as McIlroy claimed that trophy, but let’s examine a few others who aren’t too far down the board.

Assuming we’re bypassing McIlroy (+400), Rahm (+500) and Viktor Hovland (+500), others in the 50-man field appear similarly short-priced – perhaps a warning to bettors that we collectively might not enjoy next year’s smaller-field signature events as much as we’d thought.

If I’m only betting one player and not sprinkling on a few outrights, Min Woo Lee (+1400) is the guy. I really liked him at the Zozo Championship a few weeks ago, contending at the time that he’s ready to win a few bigger titles, and while that one only landed a T6 finish, this could be the right spot to propel him to bigger and better things next year.

Bet the DP World Tour Championship at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.

Just a little bit further down the board, Nicolai Hojgaard (+2200) is my favorite of all the Hojgaards playing this week, fresh off a runner-up finish to Max Homa in South Africa.

I’d be worried that 7,700 yards is a bit too much for Shane Lowry (+2500), though a previous runner-up result and other top-10 finishes suggest that he’s long enough to contend here.

If you’d rather spend your money on those with more suitable odds, two stand out to me. Alexander Bjork (+5500) spent much of this summer looking like a potential Ryder Cup selection, with six top-eight results in seven starts at one point, and also finished runner-up here two years ago.

Victor Perez (+9000) is a world-class ball-striker who’s slowly starting to round into form, and unlike just about everyone else I’ve listed, he actually has an outright number that feels a bit palatable.