Mets vs Brewers Odds: Moneyline, Over/Under, Props - October 3, 2024

Mets at Brewers

11:08 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

2-1

4 - 2

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Myers			0.00	0-0
J.Quintana			3.14	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-1	+1.5	+1.5-205	o7.5+103	+105
Brewers 1-2	u7.5	-1.5+170	u7.5-123	-125

Thursday 11:08 p.m.

October 03, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

MIL -130

Under 7.5-105

0.5u

Taking 7.5 too; Bet to 7.5 (-119) or 7 (+100); would reduce risk past -110

Under 8-120

0.5u

Bet to 7.5 (-119) or 7 (+100)

NYM +110

1.1u

Under 7.5-105

J.Quintana u15.5 Outs-160

1.6u

J.Quintana u4.5 Ks-145

0.73u

W.Contreras u1.5 Total Bases-190

0.5u

B.Nimmo u1.5 Total Bases-190

0.5u

J.Chourio u1.5 Total Bases-170

0.5u

Under 7.5-120

$1.00

Over 3.5 (Live)+126

1.26u

MIL -115

0.58u

J.Chourio o1.5 Total Bases+130

0.25u

Under 7.5-105

0.5u

Under 7.5-115

0.87u

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Thursday’s Wild Card matchup between the Mets and Brewers promises a low-scoring game, with both teams relying heavily on bullpens. Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA, 4.49 xERA) starts for New York, while Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA, 4.11 xERA) pitches for Milwaukee. Starters will likely be limited, turning the game over to dominant bullpens. Expect a cautious contest with runs at a premium.

Under 7.5-120

NYM +114 (Live)

1.14u

MIL -120

J.Quintana u4.5 Ks-150

0.75u

W.Contreras o1.5 Total Bases+145

W.Contreras o0.5 HR+520

0.5u

MIL o1.5 Team Total (F5)-130

1.3u

Under 7.5-120

0.83u

NYM +110

1.1u

#ProSystem Fade the public in playoffs Overall: 164-124-0,57% (ROI:26%) Season:4-1-0,80% (ROI:84%)

Under 7.5-105

0.95u

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 71-25-4,74% (ROI:42%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-8%)

NYM +113

1.13u

NYM +118

1.18u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-135

Under 7.5-114

0.88u

NYM +110

2.2u

J.Quintana u2.5 BB-140

Avery

MIL -130

1.3u

Johnny

F.Alvarez To Record 1+ Hits Yes-135

1.35u

Avery

NYM +110

1.1u

Avery

J.Quintana u15.5 Outs-165

1.25u

Great +EV from other books that have either pulled this line or have the under at -200 or worse. Elimination game, so Quintana will likely have a short leash. In his last 3 vs MIL he hasn't made it past 5 innings with a full leash.

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The Brewers are 36-27 (.571) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

76% of non-fastball strikeouts for Jackson Chourio are located out of the zone this season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 79% of Jose Quintana non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

Tobias Myers has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (32 Total Bases / 45 ABs) on low fastballs this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .403 -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (114/401) against Tobias Myers since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 39-42 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	84-78	45-36	39-42	63-62	20-15
Mets	72-90	34-47	38-43	35-51	37-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	73-85-4	35-44-2	38-41-2	55-67-3	17-17-1
Mets	77-77-8	37-38-6	40-39-2	39-42-5	38-35-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	11-2	55-26	48-33	83-42	19-16
Mets	74-88	36-45	38-43	44-42	30-46

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 2nd	NYM	W 5-3	-1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -132
Oct 1st	NYM	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	NYM -148
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103

Quinn Priester
SP
Priester is out with wrist
Out

Tylor Megill
SP
Megill is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P	94	6	5	0
RJ.Butto, P	12	0.1	0	2
RE.Diaz, P	39	1.2	3	0
LD.Peterson, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-3	1	0	0
2M.Vientos, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
2L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
5J.Iglesias, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Iglesias, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
6J.Winker, DH	0-2	1	0	0
7S.Marte, RF	1-4	0	0	1
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, RF	0-4	0	0	0
9F.Alvarez, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Myers, P	66	5	5	0
RT.Megill, P	7	1	1	0
RN.Mears, P	15	1	2	0
RF.Peralta, P	13	1	0	0
RD.Williams, P	34	0.2	1	4
RJ.Ross, P	1	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chourio, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2B.Perkins, CF	1-3	0	0	0
3W.Contreras, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	0	0	0
5G.Sanchez, C	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6J.Bauers, PH	1-2	1	1	1
6J.Bauers, 1B	1-2	1	1	1
7S.Frelick, RF	2-4	1	1	1
8J.Ortiz, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
9B.Turang, 2B	0-3	0	0	0