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2020 MLB Betting Preview: World Series Odds & Picks, Longshots with Value

2020 MLB Betting Preview: World Series Odds & Picks, Longshots with Value article feature image

Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell

World Series Longshots

Alongside my updated 2020 MLB projections, I also provided my World Series value plays, compared to the currently listed odds at PointsBet.

I have a World Series futures wager on each of the six teams in bold, below – three in the AL and three in the NL – after recently adding futures on both the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays – who I project to have the strongest bullpens in each of their respective leagues.

In 2019, the Padres’ bullpen led the NL with a 4.08 xFIP, while the Rays finished second in the AL with a 4.13 xFIP.

I’m not at all opposed to a wager on the Cleveland Indians – who have won at least 56% of their games for each of the past four seasons -, but I would skip any super longshot World Series wagers on the Royals or Marlins, who we will touch on in the divisional section.

Eight of the nine teams listed above – all except the Reds (2.9% World Series probability) – are also viewed as World Series value bets by FanGraphs’ ZIPS.

If you prefer ZIPS, you can bump up the Athletics (+0.2%), Indians (+0.5%), Padres (+0.6%), and Rays (+0.2%), and downgrade the Diamondbacks (-1.2%), Pirates (-0.1%) and White Sox (-0.8%).

Given the format, neither my projections nor ZIPS thinks that any team should be shorter than +931 (9.7%) to win the World Series.

I would bet the Rays down to +2000, play the A’s, Indians, Reds, and White Sox down to +2500, and take a share on either the Diamondbacks or Padres at +3500 or better.

Updated World Series Odds

Odds via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.

Team Odds (7/7)
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +385
Houston Astros +8000
Atlanta Braves +1500
Minnesota Twins +1500
Washington Nationals +1800
Tampa Bay Rays +1800
Cleveland Indians +2200
New York Mets +2200
Chicago Cubs +2500
Oakland Athletics +2500
Philadelphia Phillies +2500
Cincinnati Reds +2500
St. Louis Cardinals +3000
Los Angeles Angels +3300
Chicago White Sox +3300
Milwaukee Brewers +3500
Boston Red Sox +4000
San Diego Padres +4000
Arizona Diamondbacks +4500
Texas Rangers +7500
Toronto Blue Jays +10000
Colorado Rockies +15000
Pittsburgh Pirates +17500
San Francisco Giants +22500
Kansas City Royals +30000
Miami Marlins +30000
Seattle Mariners +35000
Detroit Tigers +40000
Baltimore Orioles +40000

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