2020 MLB Betting Preview: World Series Odds & Picks, Longshots with Value

World Series Longshots

Alongside my updated 2020 MLB projections, I also provided my World Series value plays, compared to the currently listed odds at PointsBet.

I have a World Series futures wager on each of the six teams in bold, below – three in the AL and three in the NL – after recently adding futures on both the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays – who I project to have the strongest bullpens in each of their respective leagues.

In 2019, the Padres' bullpen led the NL with a 4.08 xFIP, while the Rays finished second in the AL with a 4.13 xFIP.

I'm not at all opposed to a wager on the Cleveland Indians – who have won at least 56% of their games for each of the past four seasons -, but I would skip any super longshot World Series wagers on the Royals or Marlins, who we will touch on in the divisional section.

Eight of the nine teams listed above – all except the Reds (2.9% World Series probability) – are also viewed as World Series value bets by FanGraphs’ ZIPS.

If you prefer ZIPS, you can bump up the Athletics (+0.2%), Indians (+0.5%), Padres (+0.6%), and Rays (+0.2%), and downgrade the Diamondbacks (-1.2%), Pirates (-0.1%) and White Sox (-0.8%).

Given the format, neither my projections nor ZIPS thinks that any team should be shorter than +931 (9.7%) to win the World Series.

I would bet the Rays down to +2000, play the A's, Indians, Reds, and White Sox down to +2500, and take a share on either the Diamondbacks or Padres at +3500 or better.

Updated World Series Odds

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