2020 MLB Betting Preview: World Series Odds & Picks, Longshots with Value

2020 MLB Betting Preview: World Series Odds & Picks, Longshots with Value article feature image
Credit:

Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell

World Series Longshots

Alongside my updated 2020 MLB projections, I also provided my World Series value plays, compared to the currently listed odds at PointsBet.

I have a World Series futures wager on each of the six teams in bold, below – three in the AL and three in the NL – after recently adding futures on both the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays – who I project to have the strongest bullpens in each of their respective leagues.

In 2019, the Padres' bullpen led the NL with a 4.08 xFIP, while the Rays finished second in the AL with a 4.13 xFIP.

I'm not at all opposed to a wager on the Cleveland Indians – who have won at least 56% of their games for each of the past four seasons -, but I would skip any super longshot World Series wagers on the Royals or Marlins, who we will touch on in the divisional section.

Eight of the nine teams listed above – all except the Reds (2.9% World Series probability) – are also viewed as World Series value bets by FanGraphs’ ZIPS.

If you prefer ZIPS, you can bump up the Athletics (+0.2%), Indians (+0.5%), Padres (+0.6%), and Rays (+0.2%), and downgrade the Diamondbacks (-1.2%), Pirates (-0.1%) and White Sox (-0.8%).

Given the format, neither my projections nor ZIPS thinks that any team should be shorter than +931 (9.7%) to win the World Series.

I would bet the Rays down to +2000, play the A's, Indians, Reds, and White Sox down to +2500, and take a share on either the Diamondbacks or Padres at +3500 or better.


Updated World Series Odds

Odds via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app.Learn more about BetSync here.

TeamOdds (7/7)
Los Angeles Dodgers+350
New York Yankees+385
Houston Astros+8000
Atlanta Braves+1500
Minnesota Twins+1500
Washington Nationals+1800
Tampa Bay Rays+1800
Cleveland Indians+2200
New York Mets+2200
Chicago Cubs+2500
Oakland Athletics+2500
Philadelphia Phillies+2500
Cincinnati Reds+2500
St. Louis Cardinals+3000
Los Angeles Angels+3300
Chicago White Sox+3300
Milwaukee Brewers+3500
Boston Red Sox+4000
San Diego Padres+4000
Arizona Diamondbacks+4500
Texas Rangers+7500
Toronto Blue Jays+10000
Colorado Rockies+15000
Pittsburgh Pirates+17500
San Francisco Giants+22500
Kansas City Royals+30000
Miami Marlins+30000
Seattle Mariners+35000
Detroit Tigers+40000
Baltimore Orioles+40000

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.