MLB Futures Odds, Best Bets: Top Picks For Home Run Leader, Most Stolen Bases and More
Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez, Adalberto Mondesi and Matt Olson
- Who will lead the lead in home runs? How about most stolen bases?
- Our staff has plenty of thoughts on the stat leaders for the 2022 MLB season.
- Continue reading for our best bets on those categories and more ahead of Opening Day.
The 2022 MLB season is here, and while you're doing your research and crunching your numbers to prep your bet before the first pitch of the season is thrown, we're here to help.
Our MLB analysts have a few bets to recommend in the always-fun market of stat leaders. We have picks on most RBI, most home runs, most stolen bases and even a specific over/under on a specific player's season-long total.
Here are our best stat leader bets for the 2022 MLB season.
MLB Stat Leader Best Bets
Matt Olson RBI Leader (+1800)
Odds via BetMGM
Mike Ianniello: Matt Olson has finished among the top 10 in most RBIs in each of the last two seasons. He knocked in 111 runners last year, good for sixth in the league. Olson is still just 28 and has turned into a legit superstar, earning his first All-Star nod last year.
Olson finished last season with 146 wRC+, the eighth-best mark in the league. He now joins a loaded Atlanta Braves lineup that ranked ninth in the league in wOBA. Depending on where Olson slots into the lineup, he will likely be hitting behind superstars Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr. (when the latter returns from injury), which should give him plenty of RBI opportunities.
The move from Oakland to Atlanta should also benefit Olson at the plate. Per Baseball Savant, Truist Park ranks as the sixth-most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league. Whereas the Oakland Coliseum sits 29th and is historically very pitcher friendly.
Over the last four years, only 12 players have played more games than Olson. He stays on the field, he crushes the ball, and he should receive a big upgrade in RBI opportunities and hitting environments. I like the value on Olson at +1800 to lead the league in runs batted in.
Eugenio Suarez Under 34.5 Home Runs (-120)
Odds via DraftKings
Jules Posner: Eugenio Suarez was traded with Jesse Winker to the Seattle Mariners this past offseason.
Suarez has posted prolific power numbers in recent years, but his overall offensive struggles paired with moving to the AL West are why I believe he may not cross the 34.5 HR threshold. At -120, it seems the books feel this is likely as well.
Suarez was the beneficiary of not only playing all of his home games at Great American Ballpark, but also hitting in other friendly hitting environments like American Family Field and Wrigley Field for a good number of games each year.
Moving to the AL West, where the overall quality of pitching will presumably be better, plus having to hit in more difficult hitting environments in general, should lead to Suarez falling short of the 34.5 mark.
Additionally, his overall offensive struggles may find him in more of a platoon/timeshare situation with Abraham Toro as the Mariners look to take a step forward in the AL West this season.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run Leader (+3500)
Odds via Caesars
Sean Zerillo: The first player that should stand out is Rhys Hoskins (+7500 at Caesars), who is unlisted at FanDuel but paced for 41 home runs last season in what would have been a career year.
I initially preferred his new teammate Kyle Schwarber (+3500 at both Caesars and DraftKings) to any other prop bet when he was over +5000.
I would still play Schwarber at current prices, but it would be a smaller investment.
Both Schwarber and Hoskins project closer to players listed around +3000 in average price rather than their opening odds (+7000 and +7500, respectively).
Adalberto Mondesi Stolen Base Leader (+250)
Odds via BetMGM
Jules Posner: Although this isn't a huge value compared to other base stealers, Adalberto Mondesi (when healthy) is one of the most adept and prolific base stealers in MLB. Unfortunately, Mondesi has only appeared in more than 50% of Royals games twice in his career. Once in 2019, when he appeared in 63% of games, and he played 59 of 60 games in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
In 2021, Mondesi stole 15 bases on 16 attempts. Since entering the league in 2016, Mondesi is eighth in stolen bases, and he's accomplished that in only 343 games. Everyone above him on that list has played in 528 games or more in that same time span.
Additionally, in 2019 Mondesi had 42 stolen bases, which was good for second in MLB despite the fact that he didn’t even garner enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. He accomplished that mark in only 102 games while that year's leader, Mallex Smith, swiped 46 bases in 134 games.
Mondesi's health is a big concern, but he is reported to have switched up his offseason training routine and hopefully that yields more time on the field. Mondesi also is a good enough hitter to find himself on the basepaths frequently for a team that loves to run. The Royals boasted three of the top 30 base stealers in 2021, and the Royals may be baseball's equivalent of a fast break offense in 2022.
Yordan Alvarez Home Run Leader (+2200)
Odds via Caesars
Nick Martin: Yordan Alvarez hit 35 bombs in 2021 and 37.9 xHR in 160 games, which was actually a step back pace-wise from what we saw from his AL ROY debut season in 2019.
His excellent pop was displayed in his 2021 underlying numbers, with the eighth-highest average exit velocity at 93.2, and the seventh-best hard-hit ball rate at 54.2%.
He followed up the strong regular season with an excellent postseason, displaying more of the strong plate discipline that makes the upside so great for the 24-year-old.
With all the tools at his disposal, he's a logical candidate to improve on last season's strong numbers as he continues to develop with more big league experience. Alvarez will line up mainly at DH in a potent Houston lineup, one which will often leave pitchers forced to give in and offer something up.
Playing in what should be a below-average division pitching-wise in the AL West won't hurt his cause either, nor will the fact that Houston's Minute-Maid park is in the top-third with regards to home run Park Factors.
Caesars' +2200 is currently the best number offered, and I see lots of value at that price, but would be willing to back this down to +1400.
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