Astros vs Phillies Odds For World Series Game 3
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Rhys Hoskins
Astros vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:03 p.m. ET|
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After completing a miracle comeback in Game 1, the Phillies‘ comeback attempt fell short in Game 2.
On Friday, Houston jumped out to a 5-0 lead before the Phillies came back to tie it up two innings later. Philadelphia picked up the win with a J.T. Realmuto home run in the 10th inning.
Now after a rainstorm postponing the game on Monday, the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 all squared at 1-1. The two days of rest will give both teams full availability in the bullpens on Tuesday.
The City of Brotherly Love has been an electric environment all postseason. The Phillies have yet to lose a game at Citizens Bank Park during this postseason.
But Houston has dropped just one game the entire playoffs and is dialed in at the plate right now. Will the Phillies be able to continue to ride their home-field advantage here, or will this Astros offense be too much to overcome in Game 3?
Astros Hoping For Good McCullers
Houston was without Lance McCullers Jr. (LHP) for the majority of this season. He missed virtually the entire season with a forearm injury and wasn’t activated until August 13.
The 29-year-old made just eight starts all year, going 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA. His numbers were solid but his advanced stats were a bit more concerning with a 3.57 xERA.
Just like they were for the majority of the season, the Astros’ offense is locked in right now. They have scored at least five runs in the last four straight games. After ranking sixth in wRC+ during the regular season, they continue to generate runs throughout their lineup.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best and most dangerous hitters in baseball. But it has been Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena have led the way for the Astros at the plate throughout the playoffs.
Phillies Benefit From Postponement
The postponement of Monday’s game benefits the Phillies as they are able to avoid (or delay) their bullpen game. Instead, they will give the ball to Ranger Suarez who will be off of three full days of rest and 10 days since his last start.
Number three in this rotation, Suarez made 29 starts during the regular season, going 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA. However, since returning from the injured list at the end of July, Suarez pitched to a 2.95 ERA in 14 starts. His worst outing of the year actually came against the Astros, but it came the day after Philadelphia clinched a postseason berth and the entire team was clearly hungover.
So far this postseason, Suarez has been solid. He made two starts, allowing two runs in 8 1/3 innings, but really struggled with his control in the first outing against Atlanta. After starting his career as a reliever, he has made his last two appearances out of the bullpen. He closed out the ALCS with a save to send Philly to the World Series, and got two outs in Game 1 to keep the score tied.
Philadelphia’s offense has been mashing the ball this postseason. The Phillies not only have the best batting average and on-base percentage of any team that played more than one series, but they also lead the entire playoff field with 17 home runs.
It has been the Phillies’ stars shining on the biggest stage. Bryce Harper has been unbelievable, batting .392 with a 1.230 OPS and five home runs during the postseason. But their other top guys have been terrific two as Rhys Hoskins has five home runs too, and Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber each have three.
Citizens Bank Park has been an absolute scene this postseason. Every team benefits from a home field advantage, but there has been something different about the electricity of the Philadelphia crowd that that Phillies are clearly benefiting from.
Philadelphia is 5-0 at home this postseason and averaging seven runs per game at home, with 12 home runs and a team OPS of .975. McCullers’ xERA is more than a run higher than his ERA and after falling behind big the first two games, expect Philadelphia to be more aggressive early on to try and build an early lead.
Houston’s offense is locked in at the plate and has done damage early in games. While Suarez is undoubtedly an upgrade over Syndergaard, he does give the Astros their better splits. They posted a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, which ranked ninth in the league, but they had a 124 wRC+ against lefties, the second-best mark in the league.
Suarez ranks in just the 26th percentile in strikeout rate and has had issues with his control at times. Houston has the lowest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitchers. Putting balls in play is a good recipe against a Phillies team whose defense has been its Achilles’ heel all season.
If the Astros were able to jump all over Philadelphia’s two aces in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, I can only imagine what they will do to a lefty. They put up five runs against him in the first inning alone at the end of the season and took him deep three times.
The Phillies’ home crowd should be able to give the offense the juice it needs to get going sooner in this one. Play over 4.5 in the first five innings here, as both offenses should be able to put up a couple runs against the starting pitchers, but could slow down against fully rested bullpens.
Pick: First Five Over 4.5 (+120) (Play to -110)