The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Boston Red Sox on September 5, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Red Sox vs Diamondbacks picks: Red Sox F5 ML -120
My Red Sox vs Diamondbacks best bet is the Red Sox on the first five moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 100o / -120u | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 100o / -120u | +110 |
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Payton Tolle (BOS) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 6-8 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.38/2.06 | ERA /xERA | 5.40/4.30 |
| 1.26/2.42 | FIP / xFIP | 4.65/4.48 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.62 |
| 28.6 | K-BB% | 12 |
| 27.3 | GB% | 39.3 |
| 121 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 78 | Location+ | 98 |
Doug Ziefel’s Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Sox Primed to Support Tolle
The Boston Red Sox come into this series red hot as they've won seven of their last 10 ballgames. Their recent streak has been a continuation of their tremendous second half as they have propelled themselves right into the thick of the race in the AL East.
Sitting just 3.5 games off the Blue Jays, they send rookie Payton Tolle to the mound for his second career start. Tolle soared through the system since being drafted last year out of TCU and continued to impress in his MLB debut as he dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates.
He struck out eight batters over 5.1 innings of work while allowing just two runs and generating a ton of soft contact. His deep arsenal of pitches makes him tough to solve, and that should continue tonight against a Diamondbacks lineup that has hit lefties well of late, but has been plagued by strikeouts.
With soft contact and strikeouts being a theme for Tolle again tonight, look for the Red Sox to be in a great spot to get ahead early.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Rodriguez's Struggles to Continue
On the other side of this matchup, the Diamonbacks have been treading water in the second half as their lineup has gotten hot, but their starting pitching has not held up its end of the bargain.
A clear example of that is tonight's starter, Eduardo Rodriguez. The veteran left-hander has not put it together this season, as he makes his 25th start, sporting a 5.40 ERA and an MLB-worst 1.62 WHIP.
Traffic has been steady on the basepaths against E-Rod, and that is a troubling trend to have when facing the Boston Red Sox. Boston has been one of the best teams in baseball against lefties this season, ranking eighth in wRC+, fifth in OPS, and third in BABIP.
While they have cooled off a bit over the last month, Rodriguez is the perfect lefty to reignite their offense.
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
Payton Tolle is getting a great deal of respect in his second career big league start as a road favorite, but his underlying numbers show he deserves it. Given how bad Rodriguez has been this year, it's clear the Red Sox have the edge on the mound and at the plate.
Back them to give Tolle plenty of run support and be leading halfway through this one.
Pick: Red Sox F5 ML -120
Moneyline
Back the Red Sox on the first five moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
