Braves vs Dodgers Odds & Pick: F5 Prediction
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow.
- The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers play the second game of their three-game series on Saturday, May 4, at Dodger Stadium.
- Braves vs Dodgers odds have the Dodgers as -192 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8 (-115o / -105u).
Braves vs Dodgers Odds
| Atlanta Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+160 | 8 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-192 | 8 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +110 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers' roll continued on Friday night with their first extra-innings win of the season, which made it nine victories in 11 games heading into play on Saturday at Dodger Stadium. Now, they'll look to secure a series win with their ace on the mound, Tyler Glasnow, over the slumping Atlanta Braves.
Will Bryce Elder's fast start come to a screeching halt against the best offense in baseball, or might this series see a fitting rubber game on Sunday?
Let's get into the best way to bet on Braves vs. Dodgers on Saturday night in my MLB betting preview.
The Braves have tried desperately to fill the void left by their injured ace Spencer Strider, cycling through several arms who began the season on the right foot in Triple-A. They've seemed to settle on Elder, an All-Star a season ago who outperformed his expected numbers and managed to be an effective option in the back end of a stellar rotation.
Elder registered a 3.31 ERA in 16 1/3 innings down in Gwinett before receiving the call late last month — thus far the decision has worked out for Atlanta. He's been charged with just two runs in 12 innings, though Saturday will prove to be a much tougher test than the ones he faced against Miami and Cleveland.
The 24-year-old continues to be one of the more less-attractive arms in the game given his poor strikeout numbers, but from the moment he debuted in High-A three seasons ago, he's been able to successfully pitch to contact. His strong ground-ball numbers have translated at the big-league level, and to this point in the season he's raised his 50% ground-ball rate by nearly 15 points in what's ultimately a minuscule sample.
Even if Elder endures a bit of regression, however, we still know what to expect. His strikeout numbers continue to worsen, but he's at least been able to prevent home runs.
The issue here for Elder is that may not be enough to get past even an average offense. He walks batters at a higher clip than the average pitcher and his Expected Batting Average (xBA) has continued to climb as he's pitched to more offenses, checking in at .278 this season thanks to an elevated 48.6% hard-hit rate.
Offensively, meanwhile, the Braves seem to be all out of sorts. They've fallen off their perch atop the league in wRC+ with a terrible 28.4% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate over the last week of play. Worst of all, their Isolated Power (ISO) is just .072, a long way off their .162 mark for the season.
The Dodgers send Tyler Glasnow to the hill tonight, someone who's unquestionably delivered everything that they could have hoped for.
The 30-year-old remains one of the top strikeout arms in the league with 31.5% of his matchups ending in a the third strike, and best of all, his xBA has fallen to just .204 this season with half of the balls coming back in play against him coming on the ground or as weak infield pop-ups.
There was just one hiccup this season for Glasnow, which came three turns ago against the Nationals, something made worse by the fact that he allowed two home runs. He's yet to allow one since, though he did walk three in his last outing against the Blue Jays, which is something to monitor considering he's always been marginally better than average in that department.
Offensively, the Dodgers have emerged with the best lineup in baseball yet again with a league-leading 129 wRC+, which clears the next-best team, the Brewers, by 11 points. The Dodgers' plate discipline continues to be excellent for what feels like a fifth straight year — over the last week, they've worn an absolutely silly 15% strikeout rate with a fantastic 12.1% walk rate.
Braves vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dodgers find themselves in a spot which has been highly rewarding to this point in the season. They've really struggled to get to fly-ball pitchers to this point in the season as a team, which is generally what you see with a team that likes to hit the ball in the air, but against ground-ballers they're slashing a gorgeous .277/.360/.511.
The slugging percentage is what is most notable there, considering it's far better than the numbers they've produced against fly-ball pitchers — or those who find themselves around league average — and it runs counter to logic that would tell you a pitcher who has been good at inducing grounders would keep the ball on the ground and limit extra bases.
L.A. should have a field day against a pitcher ready for regression in Elder, and one who has struggled to limit walks. There is no better team at exploiting a pitcher with control issues than the Dodgers, and with the damage Elder is giving up on contact — even if the majority of those batted balls are coming back on the ground — I think it will be a rather short night for the young righty.
The Dodgers should be leading after five here behind their offense and Glasnow, who will pitch to a struggling group of Braves, and with a first-five innings (F5) bet we can also avoid the odd struggles that the Dodgers bullpen has had of late, most recently blowing a one-run lead on Friday.
Pick: Dodgers First Five -0.5 (-130)
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