Braves vs Marlins Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (Tuesday, May 2)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara
- The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins meet in an NL East MLB matchup on Tuesday night in Florida.
- Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for Miami, while Atlanta counters with the young Bryce Elder.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including how to bet it.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds
-102 / -120
-102 / -120
The Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins are set to collide for their second series of the season. The Braves outscored the Marlins 24-12 in their four-game series last week. We also have a rematch on the mound as Bryce Elder and Sandy Alcantara will toe the slab tonight, and while Alcantara got back on track against this Atlanta club last time out, the schedule may be working against him.
However, the schedule may also have adverse effects on the Atlanta Braves as well. Yesterday, they had a doubleheader against the New YorkMets and had to utilize their bullpen much more than they may have expected. As a result, Atlanta needs Elder to step up and give them length in this start, but that may be to their detriment.
So with question marks surrounding these two pitching staffs, what’s the best bet for this matchup? Let’s take a closer look to find out.
Atlanta has been tearing the cover off the ball. The Braves come into this matchup leading the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. The first game of their doubleheader was a prime example of their proficiency as they bashed four homers and put up nine runs in the victory.
While tonight’s pitching matchup is undoubtedly a step up in competition, they have had success against Alcantara, which should continue. Being divisional rivals, the Braves have accumulated 152 at-bats against the Marlins ace.
In those at-bats, they have hit .270 and slugged .447 with an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph. That sample size does include last week’s matchup, where Alcantara was fortunate to escape with just two earned runs allowed.
Alcantara was forced to exit in the sixth with runners on, and Huascar Brazoban ultimately allowed two runs across. Though up until he was removed, Alcantara allowed eight hard-hit balls of over 90 mph.
Alcantara’s stat line may have been a bit better, but the Braves lineup was still able to square him up. Now they get to see him for the second consecutive start, where they should have his number.
Speaking of having a pitcher’s number, the Marlins had tremendous success against Elder last week as well. They registered 11 balls hit over 90 mph off Elder in that start, and that was just the latest addition to their success.
The Marlins have accumulated 56 at-bats against Elder, hit .286, slugged .589, and have an average exit velo of 90.5 mph. However, they are expected to continue rocking Elder tonight as their xBA is .305.
Miami’s lineup has not been the most formidable, as they rank 23rd in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA, but Elder is due for some sizable regression, and the Marlins are the team to knock him back into place.
Entering this start, Elder ranks in the bottom six percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit. As a result, his xERA is 5.08, which is a stark difference from his actual ERA of 2.17.
Braves vs. Marlins Betting Pick
Both of these lineups have great matchups against the opposing starters, and we should see runs early. Although, there are not many reasons why the scoring will stop once the starters exit.
Miami has the eighth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors, and the Braves are not much better, coming in at 13th. However, the Braves bullpen may be even worse tonight as they are taxed after yesterday’s doubleheader.
So, while the name value of Alcantara has this total relatively low, all signs are pointing towards a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115 or Better)
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