Braves vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back Pete Alonso and the New York Bats Against Atlanta (Sunday, August 7)

Braves vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back Pete Alonso and the New York Bats Against Atlanta (Sunday, August 7) article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets star Pete Alonso.

  • The Mets are short home favorites as they look for their third consecutive win against the Braves on Sunday afternoon.
  • New York will hand the ball to stud starter Jacob deGrom while the Braves will counter with rookie Spencer Strider.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Braves vs. Mets Odds

Braves Odds+123
Mets Odds-143
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After taking both games of Saturday's doubleheader against Atlanta, New York has a commanding six-game lead in the loss column for the National League East division title. The Braves will have more chances against the Mets, but they're just 4-7 head-to-head against New York this year. Will the Braves chip away at their deficit, or will the hole they've dug for themselves only grow?

deGrom Faces a Tough Braves Lineup

In his first start of the season after returning from the injured list, Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom faced a depleted Nationals offense but was solid for five innings as he allowed just three hits and one earned run while striking out six and walking none. He only threw 59 pitches as he continues to get stretched out.

The Braves have a lot of power up and down the lineup, which will challenge deGrom much more than the Nats did. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, William Contreras, and Michael Harris II all have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. Atlanta needs a win badly, and maybe deGrom will have a tougher time against the first real MLB lineup he's faced in a while.

Mets Power Hitters Look to Hammer Strider

Spencer Strider has a 2.79 ERA and 3.08 xFIP this year. His 38% K% is one of the highest in the league among starting pitchers. He's a -190 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the National League Rookie of the Year award entering play Sunday. Strider has completed at least six innings and allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts, including striking out 13 Phillies in his last start.

However, he's faced the Mets already this year and failed to complete five innings, though he only allowed one earned run and struck out eight batters. Strider's power prevention numbers have been outstanding this year as he allows an ISO under .090 to both left and right-handed hitters. The Mets have a lot of power in their lineup with Pete Alonso, Daniel Vogelbach, Tyler Naquin, and Francisco Lindor each having ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this year.

Braves-Mets Pick

The best value in this matchup is on the Mets moneyline at -143 on BetRivers. Strider has had a great rookie season for Atlanta, but he wasn't so great when he faced the Mets. The Braves also haven't been great when they've faced the Mets this year as they're 4-7, including getting swept in the doubleheader on Saturday.

Maybe it's not as fun to take the favorite at these odds, but it's starting to feel like the it's the Mets' year, and I believe they'll only add to their lead in the division this afternoon.

Pick: Mets ML (-143)

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