Nationals vs Braves Odds, Picks, Predictions | MLB Betting Preview
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried
- The Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves in the first game of the season on Thursday afternoon.
- Atlanta sends ace Max Fried to the mound, while Washington's Opening Day starter is fading veteran Patrick Corbin.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including how to bet it.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-270 | 7.5 -118 / -104 | -1.5 -146 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+220 | 7.5 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -122 |
Welcome to the 2023 Major League Baseball season, where the young and exciting Atlanta Braves get to take on Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals.
Max Fried will go for the Braves, so this is quite the contrast in southpaws at the helm. Patrick Corbin was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season, so the line for this is a bit steep.
Meanwhile, Fried was as solid as always, although he did slip up in the postseason a little bit.
Given the amount of juice on the Braves’ side in this ballgame, the spread or the moneyline is not the right bet, but exploring the Braves’ team total is a good call.
Atlanta Braves
Fried is an ace. Last season, he finished in the 92nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and 90th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage. He also struck out more than 23% of batters, while only walking 4.4% of them, which was a career best.
From the time Juan Soto was traded last season through the end of the regular season, the Nationals walked just 5.7% of the time against left-handed pitchers. They have since added Dominic Smith, Jeimer Candelario and Corey Dickerson to the mix, but this lineup is still not very strong. All three of those players are looking to bounce back from weaker 2022 campaigns, too.
On the hitting side, the Atlanta Braves can smash the ball. In 2022, they ranked fifth in wRC+ at 118 against left-handed pitching. They held a .338 OBP and had little roster turnover in comparison.
They did lose William Contreras, but they added Sean Murphy. Orlando Arcia is their starting shortstop, so this is not the best offensive force in the middle infield, but the rest of this lineup is potent. Their numbers were consistent throughout the season. From August 1, 2022 and on, they held a 115 wRC+ off of southpaws with a .342 OBP.
Atlanta touted a 3.70 xFIP out of the bullpen last season, and the group is mostly unchanged. Raisel Iglesias will be out for the opener, but he will be backed up by A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez and Collin McHugh. These three should be more than enough on the back of Fried, who is a horse and can throw over 180 innings per season.
Washington Nationals
Corbin is the anti-Fried. In 2022, he ranked in the fourth percentile in Average Exit Velocity, the seventh percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the first percentile in xBA. He literally was one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB, and this is not an overstatement. His xERA was 6.41 against a 6.31 ERA, so the results were as expected. After the All-Star Break, he held a 7.13 ERA in 53 innings.
From August 1, 2022 and on, the Nationals held an 87 wRC+, ranking 25th against left-handed pitching. Their OBP was .293, as well, which can be partially attributed to that paltry walk rate against lefties in the latter part of the year.
Jiménez and McHugh are righties out of the bullpen for Atlanta, but Fried could easily go 6+ innings and then Minter will likely close this one out. That is at least seven innings of work the Nats need to do against a lefty.
Finally, the Nats bullpen is weak. Kyle Finnegan can be an OK closer at times, and Carl Edwards, Jr. produced strong 2022 results, but after Corbin gets shelled, Washington will be using some mop-up relievers.
Braves vs. Nationals Betting Pick
Washington is clearly the weaker of the two and with little data supporting backing the underdog in this one.
Corbin is a mess and until he proves otherwise, bettors should look to fade him at every chance possible. Bet the Braves team total over 4.5 and play it to 5. They should stack up the runs early and knock around the Washington middle relief corps, too.
Pick: Atlanta Braves o4.5 (-125) | play to o5 (-125)
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