Cardinals vs Marlins Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction (July 6)

Cardinals vs Marlins Odds, Expert Pick, Prediction (July 6) article feature image

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Cardinals vs. Marlins Odds

Thursday, July 6
6:40 p.m. ET
Cardinals Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Marlins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-106 / -114
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

After generating positive momentum over the weekend with a series win over the New York Yankees, the St. Louis Cardinals have dropped three straight games to the Miami Marlins.

The Cardinals will send the ever-volatile Jack Flaherty to the hill as they try to avoid a sweep at loanDepot Park. It'll be a tough task as Miami turns to highly touted rookie Eury Perez.

Let's get into the Cardinals vs. Marlins series finale in my preview, which includes a betting pick on the moneyline.

Ready to place your bets? Head over to BetMGM for the best markets, parlays, player props and more across the entire sports landscape!

St. Louis Cardinals

Let's begin with Jack Flaherty.

The right-hander has pitched 86 innings this season, marking the most he's worked since the 2019 season. With that, we have a decent sample to work with.

In that sample, Flaherty has been bad. He's walked 12.1% of the batters he's faced and his career rate now sits at an ugly 9.3%.

He's managed to remain pretty solid in the expected stats, coming in right around league average, and his hard-hit rate is a pretty low 35.4%. That, coupled with an above-average ground-ball rate, has made Flaherty a decent enough pitcher when batters actually swing and make contact. The issue is — and always has been — walks.

The Cardinals have remained hot at the plate, ranking ninth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but it's been an unconventional hot streak.

St. Louis has a poor .150 ISO over that span with average strikeout and walk numbers. However, the Cards have hit .281 with a .346 BABIP. This throws a little bit of cold water on what's looked like a hot team.

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Miami Marlins

It's been a solid rookie season to this point for Eury Perez, who has backed up the enormous hype he had entering the year. In 47 1/3 innings, he's posted a 2.47 ERA with a very impressive 28% strikeout rate. His expected batting average comes in at a cool .219, though his extreme fly-ball ways have made life tricky at times.

Perez has allowed fly balls at a 36.3% clip this year, which is 13 points above the league average. That's been an issue considering it's worked in chorus with a 42.7% hard-hit rate — and it's mostly had to do with his fastball, which is getting hit to the tune of a .297 xBA.

Miami has been feeling it at the plate over the last 14 days, posting a 111 wRC+ with an impressive 19.2% strikeout rate.

The tough news for the Marlins is their low 6.7% walk rate during that time and low .145 ISO; like the Cardinals, their offense has an overreliance on basehits.

Ready to place your bets? Head over to BetMGM for the best markets, parlays, player props and more across the entire sports landscape!

Cardinals vs. Marlins Betting Pick

Flaherty is in a rare good spot against a team that's refused to take pitches over the last couple of weeks.

On the other side of the coin, the Cardinals rank seventh in HR/FB ratio. With some solid discipline, they should be a tough lineup for Perez.

The youngster gets himself into trouble when he can't rack up strikeouts, and against a team with plenty of home run threats, I think this will get away from him.

The value is on the Cardinals as short road underdogs.

Pick: Cardinals ML (+114)

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