Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, June 19
Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images. Pictured: Josiah Gray.
- The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals open a three-game series on Monday afternoon.
- Looking to put an end to a three-game losing skid, the Nationals turn to starter Josiah Gray, who presents as a fade candidate despite strong numbers.
- MLB expert Tony Sartori previews Cardinals vs. Nationals and explains his player prop pick on Gray's strikeouts.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -154 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +104 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -125 |
The first installment of this three-game series gets underway on Monday afternoon with the NL East's Washington Nationals hosting the NL Central's St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park.
Washington has dropped its last three games, and 11 of its past 13. Will the Nationals turn things around on their home diamond, or can St. Louis take care of business as road favorites?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Cardinals vs. Nationals betting pick and prediction for Monday.
St. Louis Cardinals
A poor season for the Cardinals continues as they sit in last in the NL Central at 29-43. However, their hitting is certainly not to blame.
Entering Monday, St. Louis ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. Another thing the Cards do quite well is avoiding the strikeout.
When facing right-handed pitching, the Cardinals rank seventh in K%. Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup for the Cardinals, five of their nine hitters possess a K% south of 21%.
Washington Nationals
Right-hander Josiah Gray is slated to take the mound for the Nationals, and he is a good fade candidate in this one.
Through 14 starts, Gray is 4-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. While the surface-level stats are strong, Gray's underlying metrics suggest regression is looming. Currently, he ranks in the 50th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%.
Additionally, Gray's strikeout metrics are not promising, ranking in the 47th percentile or lower in K% and Chase Rate.
He has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in three of his last five starts.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Betting Pick
This trend is likely to continue against St. Louis. In his career against the Cardinals, Gray is 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA and 2.10 WHIP.
In his last start against them (on Sept. 8, 2022), Gray surrendered four runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings, with just three strikeouts. It would not be shocking if we see a similar outing to kick off Monday's MLB slate.
I would not play this number at anything lower than 4.5.
Pick: Josiah Gray Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+124 | Play to -125) |
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