The New York Yankees host the Chicago Cubs on Saturday, July 12, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Yankees are streaking into the All-Star break as winners of five straight entering Saturday's matinee against the Cubs. Two All-Star left-handers will be on the hill at Yankee Stadium in Max Fried and Matthew Boyd.
Find my Cubs vs Yankees prediction for Saturday afternoon below.
My Cubs vs Yankees Prediction
- Cubs vs Yankees picks: Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to -130)
My Cubs vs Yankees best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Yankees Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
8.5 -102o / -119u | +140 | |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
8.5 -102o / -119u | -172 | |
Cubs vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHI) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L | 11-2 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 2.52 / 3.24 | ERA / xERA | 2.27 / 3.28 |
| 3.30 / 3.86 | FIP / xFIP | 2.98 / 3.31 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 17.7% | K-BB% | 18.5% |
| 37% | GB% | 52% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 107 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori's Cubs vs Yankees Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Boyd in the Bronx
Matthew Boyd has been Chicago’s best pitcher this season. Through 18 starts, the southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Boyd ranks in the top quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), walk rate and hard-hit rate.
This success is likely to continue against New York. Over Boyd’s past four meetings with the Yankees, he boasts a 2.91 ERA.
Following Boyd is a trustworthy bullpen. This season, the Cubs’ relief corps ranks fourth in ERA, 12th in FIP and 11th in WAR.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Frying the Competition
While Chicago’s strong pitching staff will be on display in this matchup, New York counters with the dominant Max Fried. Although Tarik Skubal is running away with the American League Cy Young Award once again, Fried remains in the conversation.
Through 19 starts, the left-hander is 11-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Like Boyd, Fried’s analytics are just as strong as his surface-level stats.
Fried ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Another similarity between Boyd and Fried is their impressive track records against today’s opponent.
That said, Fried has particularly dominated the Cubs throughout his career. Through six meetings, the southpaw is a perfect 6-0 with a 1.18 ERA and 0.66 WHIP.
Cubs vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup should feature some phenomenal pitching. Boyd and Fried have been terrific this season, both statistically and analytically.
The main concern in taking the under is that both lineups are capable of putting up crooked numbers. That said, both starters have tremendous track records against today’s opponent.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122 | Play to -130)
Moneyline
I lean toward New York, but I don't want to fade Boyd.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting under 8.5.
