The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Colorado Rockies on August 22, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on COLR.
Don’t look now, but are the Rockies getting hot? Relatively speaking, they have more than doubled their winning percentage since the All-Star break. Colorado was 22-74 in the first half of the year, a .229 winning percentage.
However, they are 15-16 since the break. Good for a .484 winning percentage. They have gone from horrendous to slightly below average, whereas the Pirates have stayed consistently below average. Pittsburgh is also 15-16 in the second half, a slight improvement from their .402 winning percentage over the first half.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rockies vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rockies vs Pirates Prediction
- Rockies vs Pirates pick: Over 8.5
My Rockies vs Pirates best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Pirates Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +155 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -190 |
Rockies vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Antonio Senzatela (COL) | Stat | RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-14 | W-L | 3-2 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 7.00 / 7.01 | ERA /xERA | 3.02 / 3.58 |
| 5.60 / 5.13 | FIP / xFIP | 2.66 / 3.66 |
| 1.87 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 3.5% | K-BB% | 13.6% |
| 47.1% | GB% | 50.8% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 103 | Location+ | 102 |
Mike Ianniello’s Rockies vs Pirates Preview
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview: Senzatela Going Through It
Even when grading on the curve of playing in Colorado, Antonio Senzatela is having himself a rough season. He is 4-14 with a 7.00 ERA over 22 starts this season. Of any player with at least 100 innings pitched, Senzatela has the highest ERA by more than half a run. He also has the lowest K/9 rate of all those pitchers at just 4.75 K/9.
What is most concerning for Senzatela is that he actually has a worse ERA away from Coors Field, so you can’t even blame it on the thin air. He is just 1-8 with a 7.04 ERA on the road this season. He throws his fastball more than 50% of the time and opponents have hit .368 against it.
Only two teams have scored fewer runs than Colorado this season; spoiler alert, they are playing one of them. Even with the benefit of the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, the Rockies rank last in wRC+. Unfortunately, the thin air doesn’t help as much when you strikeout a ton.
The only regular starter for Colorado with an OPS over .800 is catcher Hunter Goodman. He has an .852 OPS with 25 home runs and has been the heartbeat of this team. Brenton Doyle has also gotten red hot at the plate. He is batting .395 with a 1.069 OPS since the All-Star break.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: Ashcraft Next Up?
Pittsburgh has a loaded prospect pool, and Braxton Ashcraft is the most recent graduate after starting the season ranked in the Young Bucs' top five prospects. He earned his big-league call-up and made his MLB debut on May 26. Pittsburgh eased him into the majors, starting him coming out of the bullpen despite being a starter throughout the minors.
The strategy has seemed to work as Ashcraft has started his career with a 3.02 ERA in 19 appearances. He is set to make his fourth career start and is coming off his longest outing in the bigs. Ashcraft went five innings, allowing just one run against the Cubs in his last time out. He throws a fastball that averages 97 miles per hour with a terrific slider and keeps the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time.
Ashcraft could be piggybacked on Friday with the MLB debut of highly-touted prospect Bubba Chandler. Currently the No. 7 overall prospect in all of baseball, Chandler is expected to be called up to Pittsburgh on Friday and will start out of the bullpen the same way Ashcraft did.
Colorado ranks 28th in runs scored this season and unfortunately, Pittsburgh ranks 30th. The pitching staff is loaded, but they continue to not invest in offensive talent and it shows on the field. The Pirates have hit the fewest home runs by a mile, 22 fewer than any other team this season.
There is not a single player on this team with an OPS above .710. Having a wRC+ of 100 is considered league average. The Pirates have zero players with an rRC+ of at least 100. The only player that can sometimes be dangerous is Oneil Cruz and he is currently on the injured list with a concussion.
Rockies vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Senzatela has been arguably the worst pitcher in the entire league this season, but I cannot in good conscience lay -190 with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
As bad as these two offenses have been all year, they do rank 19th and 22nd in wRC+ over the last 30 days, so a little better than the overall season numbers. The Rockies actually rank 10th in wOBA over the last month.
Both teams will be in their better offensive splits against a right-handed starting pitcher. Goodman and Doyle have been crushing the ball for Colorado, as has recent call-up Warming Bernabel. And Bryan Reynolds has finally gotten going for Pittsburgh.
The Pirates just faced Senzatela earlier this month and lit him up for eight runs and chased him before the end of the first inning. This lineup should have a ton of confidence coming against him again.
Colorado also just saw Ashcraft recently, and put up three runs in two innings, the most he has allowed all year. Ashcraft has looked good early, and the Pirates have been limiting his exposure, but he is still a young kid playing in just his 20th major league game.
For arguably the league’s two worst offensive teams, all the games went over the total when these two squads met at the start of the month. They scored a combined 60 runs in three games, and every game featured at least 13 runs. Even with this series heading to Pittsburgh instead of the Mile High, I am going to play the over on Friday night in the Steel City.
Pick: Over 8.5
Moneyline
Pass.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Back the total to go over 8.5 on Friday in Pittsburgh.
Rockies vs Pirates Betting Trends
