The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies on July 28, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres are favored by -202 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rockies are +166 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Rockies vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rockies vs Padres Prediction
- Rockies vs Padres Pick: Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-106, Fanduel)
Our Rockies vs Padres best bet is Michael Lorenzen to stay under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Padres Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +158 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -188 |
- Rockies vs Padres moneyline: Rockies +166, Padres -202
- Rockies vs Padres over/under: 8.5 (-100o / -120u)
- Rockies vs Padres spread: Padres -1.5 (+105 ), Rockies +1.5 (-130)
Rockies vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Michael Lorenzen (RHP) | Stat | Michael King (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-9 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 6.53/5.65 | ERA / xERA | 3.24/4.59 |
| 4.94/4.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04/4.50 |
| 8.1 | K-BB% | 11 |
| 45.3 | GB% | 43.8 |
| .363 | BABIP | .251 |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Rockies vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Colorado opens a two-game set at San Diego, which is fighting to hold a wild-card spot. Michael King gets the ball for the Padres, carrying a 3.24 ERA and 103 strikeouts on the year, a clear step up from Michael Lorenzen, who's struggled to a 3-9 record and 6.53 ERA for the Rockies.
Lorenzen has been a contact pitcher all season, sitting around 6.9 K/9, and hasn't topped five strikeouts in a start since July began. His last outing was another short one: six runs allowed over just 3.2 innings on July 21.
Rockies vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
Lorenzen's per-start ceiling and a quick hook from Colorado when things go sideways early are the two things driving this number.
Our model has him projected for 3.07 strikeouts tonight, well under the 3.5 line, an 11.7% edge at -106.
A hot early inning could get there fast, but his season-long track record of living below this total makes the under the side with the edge.
Pick: Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-106, Fanduel)
