The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies on September 11, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on COLR.
The Rockies and Padres will begin a four-game series tonight, with McCade Brown on the mound for Colorado and Randy Vasquez for San Diego.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rockies vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rockies vs Padres Prediction
- Rockies vs Padres pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
My Rockies vs Padres best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Padres Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
Rockies vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP McCade Brown (COL) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | W-L | 4-6 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 12.54 / 7.63 | ERA / xERA | 3.91 / 5.87 |
| 8.18 / 7.86 | FIP / xFIP | 5.18 / 5.84 |
| 2.36 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| -1.9 | K-BB% | 2.6 |
| 41.7 | GB% | 38.3 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 91 | Location+ | 100 |
Rockies vs Padres Preview
The Rockies have scored a grand total of four runs in their last four games, and that includes one played at Coors Field.
They are coming off a shutout loss to the Dodgers and will start this series tonight against the Padres as the worst offense in baseball this season, with a 76 rating, despite playing half their games in the stadium with the best conditions for hitters.
This means Colorado's already awful wRC+ rating drops to 64 when playing on the road, like tonight.
They will face Padres starter Randy Vasquez, who holds a 3.77 ERA at home in 2025. He faced this Rockies lineup in his last start, holding them to two earned runs in six innings at Coors Field.
San Diego hasn't been all that productive recently, scoring just seven runs total in their three-game series against the Reds.
This aligns with a weather angle, courtesy of Bet Labs, to go with the under as the recommended bet tonight.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity —ranging from 45 to 95— intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has subtly corrected as well, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between 6 and 29. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Rockies vs Padres Betting Trends
