The St. Louis Cardinals host the Colorado Rockies on August 8, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Cardinals are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rockies are +137 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rockies vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rockies vs Cardinals Prediction
- Rockies vs Cardinals Pick: Under 9 (-118), 1u | Bet to 8.5
My Rockies vs Cardinals best bet is on the run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Cardinals Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +134 | 8.5 -118o / -103u | +137 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -160 | 8.5 -118o / -103u | -156 |
- Rockies vs Cardinals moneyline: Rockies +137, Cardinals -156
- Rockies vs Cardinals over/under: 8.5 (-118o / -103u)
- Rockies vs Cardinals spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+134 ), Rockies +1.5 (-160)
Rockies vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) | Stat | LHP Matthew Liberatore (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-10 | W-L | 5-8 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 6.81/5.23 | ERA / xERA | 4.97/4.87 |
| 4.67/4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.64/4.19 |
| 14.4% | K-BB% | 13.9% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 36.8% |
| .340 | BABIP | .334 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Rockies vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
While I have very little affinity for either of these pitchers, a total of nine is just too high in this spot.
Kyle Freeland has a 6.81 ERA, but with 10.7% Barrels/BBE, a 5.23 xERA is his only estimator less than two runs better than his surface results. Not to mention the 34-percentage-point run-suppression improvement he gets just from switching parks.
Also, over the last month, Freeland doesn’t have a contact-neutral estimator (SIERA, xFIP) reaching even four, with an improvement to .320 in his xwOBA allowed.
Matthew Liberatore, similarly, has a 4.97 ERA that exceeds all of his estimators. In his case as well, the 4.86 xERA is easily the worst of his underlying metrics.
And over the last month, Liberatore has improved to a 3.24 SIERA and .269 xwOBA. He has a 22.1 K-BB%, while allowing a single barrel over this span.
I mentioned St Louis’s tumbling offense in an earlier game, and their projected nine is down to an average 82 wRC+ at home, 95 vs LHP and 63 over the last 30 days. Avoid Jordan Walker (152) and Ivan Herrera (124), and you don’t have to deal with another St Louis batter exceeding a 114 wRC+ against southpaws this year, and some of them have small enough sample sizes that they may be even worse.
Meanwhile, while the Rockies have been better, their projected starters average a 94 wRC+ on the road, 97 wRC+ against LHP and 82 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
None of it’s close to average and should we mention again the run environment 6% below average? Current forecasts call for anywhere from a 3% boost to 5% further suppression of that number, though scheduled umpire Willie Traynor (+2.7%) is an extremely hitter-friendly official.
Add in the projected St Louis defense at 22 FRV (Colorado at -1) and not even a pair of bottom-third bullpens over the last month, who traded away some of their better arms, gets me to nine here.
It’s two sub-average pitchers, both pitching much better over the last month against a pair of below-average offenses in a run-suppressing environment.
I’d play to 8.5, reducing to win 0.5u below 9.
Picks: Under 9 (-118), 1u | Bet to 8.5
