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Diamondbacks vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Expect a Pitching Duel in Atlanta (Sunday, July 31)

Diamondbacks vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Expect a Pitching Duel in Atlanta (Sunday, July 31) article feature image
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Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried (Braves)

  • The Diamondbacks are looking to avoid the sweep as the Braves have dominated this series so far.
  • Arizona will send Merrill Kelly to the mound, and Atlanta will counter with Max Fried.
  • Jules Posner is intrigued by this pitching matchup and offers up his best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +190
Braves Odds -250
Over/Under 8 (-110/-110)
Time 1:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Atlanta Braves aim to sweep the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon. Saturday’s game was much more lopsided than the 6-2 final score would suggest, as this series has been all Braves so far.

Both teams are 6-4 over their past 10 games, but the Braves have a huge advantage at home this season, where they are 34-21 record — the third-best mark in MLB. The Diamondbacks’ road record dropped to 18-27 following Saturday’s loss.

Merrill Kelly will try to salvage the final game of the series for the Diamondbacks and he’ll be opposed by Braves’ ace Max Fried.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: Can Offense Get to Fried?

The Diamondbacks’ offense has not been a strong unit on the road this season and following the departure of David Peralta via trade, they’ve lost a strong veteran presence in the lineup as well.

Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks have the fifth best offense against lefties over the past month with a 129 team wRC+ over that span. I’m not sure what to make of that considering they have a pretty left-handed lineup overall. They will also be facing Max Fried, who has been dominant this season.

Merrill Kelly has been excellent this season and he’ll definitely give the D’Backs a shot at the upset on Sunday. However, his 3.75 FIP and 4.99 xFIP on the road make it harder to trust his 3.18 road ERA.

Another interesting element of this matchup is the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been pretty solid over the past couple of weeks — something that hasn’t been said often this season.

Atlanta Braves: Will Bats Get Back on Track?

Max Fried ran into some weird luck in his last start against the Phillies and will look to factor out luck in Sundays’ series finale. Fried brings a sub-3 ERA and FIP at home into Sundays’ matchup. He’s one of the best.

The Braves’ offense jumped on Corbin Martin for four runs in four innings and jumped on Caleb Smith for another two in his two innings of relief. However, the Braves offense has been a bottom third unit at home against right handers over the past few weeks. With Merrill Kelly making the start for the D’Backs, the Braves may also have their hands full.

Diamondbacks-Braves Pick

Although Merrill Kelly is not a marquee name, this is a very interesting pitching matchup featuring two starters at the top of their game. Considering both offenses are not particularly strong in their given situations, the under looks to be the move on Sunday.

The total is set at 8 runs and the under opened at -105 odds. This seems like something that’s going to move overnight, so the under should be played to -120 at 8 runs or as close to plus money as possible if it moves to 7.5 runs.

Pick: Under 8

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