Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Prediction | MLB Odds, Pick

Diamondbacks vs Cardinals odds for Wednesday are on the move, as the Diamondbacks are +100 underdogs on the moneyline after opening as -118 favorites. The over/under is set at 7.5.

Jordan Montgomery displayed why he should have been signed much sooner in free agency in his first start as a Diamondback when he gave up just one run in six innings in a 17-1 win on Friday over the Giants. The veteran southpaw has made a living by keeping the ball on the ground and not walking too many hitters. His opponent Wednesday will be one of his former teams in the St. Louis Cardinals.

Kyle Gibson goes for the Cardinals, and he has not had the best start to 2024. He keeps the ball on the ground, like Montgomery, but the Diamnondbacks have plenty of bats who are used to working around a high Ground-ball Rate.

Both bullpens can hold their own, but Montgomery is the better starting pitching option to back in this game.

Find my Diamondbacks vs Cardinals prediction below.

Montgomery held an above average Ground-ball Rate, Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate in 2023, which led him to a 3.20 ERA and sub-4.00 xERA. His Ground-ball Rate had been higher in years past, but this is plenty serviceable. His best attribute is not walking anyone, and he did not walk anyone in his first appearance against the Giants. For reference his Walk Rate has been around 6.5% in his career.

Overall, the Diamondbacks have one of the highest Ground-ball Rates in MLB, but they still have an 11.5% Walk Rate and sub-19% Strikeout Rate off of righties. In addition, they have six bats above a .315 xwOBA when facing a righty. Geraldo Perdomo being out does not help, but they have enough in the batting order to force Gibson out of the game.

In relief, the D-Backs have several reliable arms on the back of a Montgomery start. Paul Sewald and Miguel Castro being on the Injured List hurts the bullpen depth a bit, but Montgomery already threw more than six innings in his first outing. He can do the same against a subpar Cardinals lineup on Wednesday.

Gibson keeps balls out of the air, as mentioned above, but he yields plenty of hard contact and has a below average Walk Rate. Additionally, he has only struck out 14% of batters he has faced. Sure, a high Average Exit Velocity or Hard Hit Rate may not matter when the ball is on the ground, but the D-Backs made a World Series run with a team that kept the ball on the ground in 2023. They could actually benefit with this matchup.

The Cardinals are also worse against lefties than the D-Backs are against righties. St. Louis has an 83 wRC+ with a 13.3% Walk Rate. Walks may not be as big of a factor here with Montgomery on the mound, but outside of the top-five hitters in the lineup, the Cardinals' batting numbers dwindle.

Iván Herrera might catch, as he has better numbers off of lefties this season than Willson Contreras, but otherwise, Arizona should plate more runs off of the starter.

The Cardinals do not have the crucial injuries in the relief staff that the Diamondbacks do, so they could have a slight edge overall out of the bullpen. However, Gibson may not pitch as deep into this game if the Diamondbacks get to him early, so this should even the playing field.

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The Diamondbacks have the better lineup and get to face the weaker starting pitcher on Wednesday.

Yes, they hit lefties better than righties, but not striking out should help them against Gibson, who rarely strikes anyone out anyways. Take Arizona in this one, even without two key relief arms. Play them to -135 on the moneyline.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline -118 (Bet to -135)