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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Madison Bumgarner and Tony Gonsolin Give Over/Under Value (May 16)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Madison Bumgarner and Tony Gonsolin Give Over/Under Value (May 16) article feature image
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Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner.

  • As you'd expect, the Dodgers are big favorites (-236 odds) over the Diamondbacks at home tonight.
  • Madison Bumgarner looks to continue a strong run of form opposite Los Angeles starter Tony Gonsolin.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +190
Dodgers Odds -236
Over/Under 8.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers were both on a roll before having weekends to forget.

Arizona’s run started with a series win in late April over Los Angeles, and until yesterday it had not dropped a series since that triumph. Will the best team in the National League be what Arizona needs to get back on track, or will the Dodgers exact some revenge? Let’s have a look at the numbers.

Arizona’s Pitching Powering Winning Stretch

The Diamondbacks have been kind of hot lately. Until dropping the final two games against the Cubs, they’d won 12 of 16. In the past two weeks, they rank 12th in baseball with a 105 wRC+ and boast some solid numbers. Arizona may still be striking out at a high rate, but it is also walking 10% of the time in that 14-day span.

Arizona may be middle of the pack in exit velocity, but we’ve learned this year that exit velocity isn’t always everything. Plenty of contact-oriented teams and players have found success in the early going. With that said, the Diamondbacks are third last in contact rate in the past two weeks and may simply be getting lucky out there.

One thing that’s driven Arizona to victory is pitching; the D’backs are 11th in staff ERA over the past two weeks. One man who’s surprisingly great is Madison Bumgarner, who enters Monday’s start with a 1.78 ERA. While his expected ERA is a much-higher 3.81 and his hard-hit rate sits over 40%, Bumgarner actually has a lower expected batting average and expected wOBA on contact this season. It doesn’t mean he’ll continue to be elite, but perhaps he could be average at worst.

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Dodgers Lineup Struggling Against Southpaws

OK, it’s early. The sample size is still small. I’m not going to hit the panic button quite yet. But we do need to address the fact that the Dodgers aren’t hitting lefties.

Yes, Los Angeles is down in 18th with a 95 wRC+ against southpaws this season. That’s across 392 plate appearances, and for reference the Dodgers had almost 1900 against lefties last season. With that being said, their offensive numbers have been downright insane this season, which is why it’s a bit peculiar to see this number. On top of that, we know the Dodgers have historically had issues against lefties over the past few years.

Like I said, I’m not going to freak out. We saw the Dodgers turn around their fortunes against lefties in due time last year. Given the history of this offense and left-handers, though, I’m just a little interested to see how this develops.

There’s been turnover here, and Trea Turner is a career .320 hitter against lefties. With that being said, they did lose one of their best hitters in the split in Corey Seager, and added Freddie Freeman who, while still good against lefties, is considerably worse in that split.

Enough about lefties, let’s talk about Tony Gonsolin. He’ll start for the Dodgers and has been excellent this year. While he hasn’t provided much length (not really his choice!) he’s sporting a very nice .276 xwOBA on contact and a 22.2% hard-hit rate, both of which are elite numbers. He’s registered a 1.33 ERA and has been pretty unhittable. His only occasional issue has been walks.

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Diamondbacks-Dodgers Pick

The Dodgers probably win this game, but I don’t know if it will be pretty or all that lopsided. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been solid, as has Bumgarner. While regression may set in, there are signs that he can still be very serviceable and keep Arizona in the game.

On top of that, we’ve highlighted here that the Diamondbacks have some issues at the plate, and L.A.’s left-handed demons have yet to be exorcized. I think both offenses will run into some issues here.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

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