Padres vs Diamondbacks Picks, Odds, Predictions for Tuesday, April 4
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Ketel Marte
- The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Tuesday afternoon MLB action.
- It's a battle of aces in this one, with San Diego's Yu Darvish taking on Arizona's Zac Gallen.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including how to bet it.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
The San Diego Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound on Tuesday to face Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
This is a battle of aces that would better be reserved for a weekend outing, but baseball fans can rejoice. Darvish has yet to throw this season, while Gallen struggled in his first outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing five earned runs on 4 2/3 innings. He did mow down seven Dodgers via the strikeout, however.
Gallen had encouraging peripherals in 2022, so we shouldn’t be too concerned by one rough start against one of the elite offenses in baseball. Darvish had similar numbers, so this one could be a pitchers’ duel the names portend.
Let’s take a look at both teams and see if we can find a betting angle on Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
Gallen held a 3.17 xERA last year against a 2.54 ERA, so yes, he got lucky in some fashion, but he also held a sub-1.00 WHIP, so he rarely allowed baserunners.
Last season, his strikeout rate ranked in the 74th percentile, while his walk rate ranked in the 68th percentile. He also ranked in the 65th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 64th percentile in Hard Hit Rate.
The Diamondbacks finished last season strong offensively, with a 104 wRC+ with a .733 OPS against right-handers from August 1 through the end of the season. This should bode well against the right-handed Darvish with most of the lineup in action. Adding Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. and Gabriel Moreno definitely is a boost, too.
The D’backs did have some trouble in relief in 2022. They ranked dead-last with a 4.52 xFIP, while being the only bullpen who struck out fewer than 20% of hitters.
They added Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin, but with Joe Mantiply on the injured list, this unit could one again struggle this year. Still, with an ace in Gallen on the mound, they will hopefully not be asked to cover many innings.
Darvish is an ace in every right, but his peripherals are not as encouraging as Gallen’s, at least from 2022. He ranked in the 49th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 58th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. In contrast to Gallen as well, Darvish only walked 4.8% of hitters and struck out 25.6% of them.
He also held a 4.22 ERA against a 3.32 xERA, so his results in 2022 did not do him any favors.
The Padres were good against right-handed hitting last year with a 107 wRC+. The offense is obviously very good and draws walks north of 10% of the time, but I’m confident a pitcher of Gallen’s caliber can hold the offense at bay..
Out of the ‘pen, the Padres ranked in the middle of the pack with a 3.84 xFIP in 2022. Josh Hader is about as strong of a closer as a team can have, but Robert Suarez is hurt, and the rest of the bullpen is questionable with their viability.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Betting Pick
Gallen and Darvish are — at worst from Arizona’s perspective — evenly matched on the mound. So there’s obvious value with the Diamondbacks here as underdogs. Arizona can hit righties at a comparable rate to the Padres, so the market is offering us a discount on Gallen and the Snakes as underdogs.
Take Arizona down to +100.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML +120 (Bet to +100)
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