Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, September 6
Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Jazz Chisholm Jr. #2 of the Miami Marlins.
Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds
JT Chargois will be the opener for Miami, but the rest of the script is unknown as of writing.
Despite having some unknowns, there are lines out for this game, and one great bet and a couple looks for bettors to jump on once news becomes official.
For a hot second there, it looked like the Dodgers had gotten away with highway robbery again. They had picked up a struggling Lance Lynn from the White Sox for a pair of solid but not overwhelming prospects, and he instantly looked like a star again. In his first four starts with the club, he allowed just four earned runstotal and collected a win in each outing.
The fifth outing looked solid on the surface (quality start and another win), but the cracks started to show. He struck out only two Red Sox and allowed 10 hits. However, it was his last outing that really started to ring some alarms. Lynn allowed seven runs over four and a third innings, but more notably, his velocity was down across the board, especially with his secondary pitches.
Now, the Marlins offense is not even in the same ballpark as that Braves offense he had to face last time out, but if that velocity continues to drag, his very notable home run problem could arise again. Even in his 35 1/3 innings as a Dodger (3.57 ERA), he has allowed nine ([) home runs — sixth-most in baseball over that stretch — and a HR/9 of 2.29.
The good news for Lynn is that the Marlins and their LoanDepot Park present a good matchup to try to fix those problems. LoadDepot Park ranks 27th in Baseball Savant's park factors for home runs over the past three seasons, and the Marlins as a team rank 24th in terms of home runs against right-handed pitchers.
There are a few players to eye, however, in terms of taking advantage of Lynn's home run problems. Most notably, bettors can get Jazz Chisholm at +480 to homer at BetRivers. Chisholm has homered in three of his last seven games, and he has proven a streaky hitter in his short career. Jake Burger (+475) and Josh Bell (+500), the Marlins' two midseason acquisitions, are also interesting looks with success against righties this season, and if a bettor were to put a bet on all three hitters to homer, he/she could get implied odds right around 50-50 for one of the three to leave the yard.
On the run prevention side of things, there is a lot less known as of writing. Several names have appeared online as possibilities to bulk behind Chargois. Full transparency: During the course of writing this preview, the Marlins' first-five line moved from +130 to +115, and it went from having value to a stay-away for me. The bulk options (Edward Cabrera, Bryan Hoenig, George Soriano) all have some intrigue to them, but as the market adjusts closer to Miami, that intrigue fades.
Dodgers vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a game screaming for live betting. If bettors see Lance Lynn come out sitting around 90 mph with his fastball and just 80 mph with his slider, I'd look to the Marlins moneyline.
Chisholm, Burger, and Bell are listed above as potential home run bets, but I like them to homer most off Lynn if the velo is down, so waiting and live betting each player to homer in their specific bets against Lynn is a way to get even more value out of that market.