Dodgers vs Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Looking to Pitching For Value (Sunday, August 28)
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias (Dodgers)
Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -300 |
| Marlins Odds | +250 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-120/+100) |
| Time | 12:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
We have the third matchup of this four-game series with the NL East's Miami Marlins hosting the NL West's Los Angeles Dodgers.
There are two outstanding young pitchers slated to take the mound for each team in what could be a great showdown.
Will these promising starters live up to the hype, or can the bats beat expectations?
Los Angeles Dodgers
Slated to take the mound for Los Angeles in this game is left-hander Julio Urias. Through 24 starts this season, Urias is 13-7 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
While those numbers are outstanding, he has been particularly untouchable lately. Over his last seven starts, Urias is 6-1 with a 1.02 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.
There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in four of those seven games (57%). We should not expect any regression from Urias, who boasts an incredible .260 xwOBA, .207 xBA, and .332 xSLG this season.
In his lone start against Miami last year, Urias allowed just one run on six hits through seven innings pitched. Following Urias is one of the best bullpens in baseball.
Since July 1, the Dodgers' relief pitching ranks fourth in the league in ERA, first in WHIP, second in BA, third in SLG, second in wOBA, and eighth in FIP.
Miami Marlins
Starting opposite of Urias for the Marlins is right-hander Edward Cabrera. Through seven starts this season, Cabrera is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Not only has he been brilliant this year, but Cabrera is coming off of four straight shutout performances. Not all of these outings were against poor offenses either, holding both Philadelphia and San Diego scoreless over that stretch.
Remarkably, Cabrera's metrics hold up to this ridiculous stretch of pitching. This year, he boasts a .265 xwOBA, .175 xBA, and .261 xSLG. The only person on the Dodgers roster who has seen Cabrera before is Freddie Freeman, back when he was on Atlanta (0-1 with a walk).
Since this lineup has not seen his stuff before, it could take a few rotations through the order to figure him out. However, he may not get much run support as the Marlins are slated to go against Urias.
When facing left-handed pitchers, Miami ranks dead-last in the league in BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA since the beginning of July. Going against one of the better left-handed pitchers in baseball, there is no reason to expect any sort of positive regression from this group.
Dodgers-Marlins Pick
If It was not for the Dodgers' powerful offense, this total would be set at 6.5 at the highest. However, if there is any pitcher who can quell this offense, then It is the guy who is coming off of 22.2 straight innings of scoreless pitching.
Miami should struggle to get past two runs going against Urias and this Dodgers bullpen, so that means we just need five or fewer from Los Angeles. That should be more than doable considering how dominant Cabrera has been.
If this total does dip to 6.5, however, I would not take It at that number.
Pick: Dodgers/Marlins u7 (+100) | Play up to (-120)
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