Dodgers vs Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: L.A. Has Value in Marquee Matchup (Wednesday, August 31)

Dodgers vs Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: L.A. Has Value in Marquee Matchup (Wednesday, August 31) article feature image

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Anderson #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • Two of the best teams in baseball meet again in Queens Wednesday when the Los Angeles Dodgers face the New York Mets.
  • L.A. took Game 1 but the Mets are the favorite tonight (-165) with ace Jacob deGrom on the mound.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks it down where he sees betting value in tonight's clash.

Dodgers vs. Mets Odds

Dodgers Odds+140
Mets Odds-165
Over/Under6.5 (-120 / +100)
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New YorkMets will continue to do battle in what could be a preview of the NLCS. Tonight's pitching matchup isn't exactly the best one that this series could potentially offer, but it's very close.

Tyler Anderson gets the ball for the Dodgers while Jacob deGrom will toe the rubber for the home squad, and as he normally does, deGrom garnered an incredible amount of respect from oddsmakers. Will he prevail, though?

Let's take a look at this one.

Can the Dodgers' Lineup Rattle deGrom?

Let's talk about Anderson for a second. The left-hander has been brilliant all season long, pitching to a 2.69 ERA with solid peripherals. Though his strikeout rate is a middling 19.9%, Anderson has been excellent at pitching to contact with a .315 xwOBA on contact and a low 29.8% hard-hit rate.

Both are in the top 5% of the league, and interestingly Anderson's contact profile doesn't include a lot of ground balls; he's been able to get outs via the fly ball and the pop up.

As for the Dodgers' offense, we know they are good — but how good will they be against deGrom? Freddie Freeman is a .238 hitter off of the Mets' ace in 63 at-bats and Trea Turner has hit .250 in 44 at-bats.

Aside from that, there's not a whole lot to go off of with a relatively small sample for just about everyone else on the roster.

Will the Mets Get Enough From the Bullpen?

That's not to say we should throw history out the window. deGrom has a 2.87 ERA in his career against the Dodgers, and there are only eight teams that he has posted a worse mark against. Looking up and down the lineup, there are also nine home runs altogether between the Dodgers who should play in this one.

We should also note here that while deGrom has been as good as ever this season, he's hardly pitched deep into games. He topped out at 95 pitches two starts ago before throwing 85 last time out. As a result, he has yet to complete seven innings in a start and has only gone into the seventh once.

With that, we should make note here that New York's bullpen has been kind of a nightmare lately. They own a 4.06 ERA in the second half of the season, which puts them in the bottom half of the league. The horns may proudly sound for the indomitable Edwin Diaz, but alarm bells ring for just about everyone else.

Dodgers-Mets Pick

The Mets have the 16th-ranked wRC+ against lefties, and will run into a pretty tough one here in Anderson. The 32-year-old has been incredible so far this year at pitching to contact, and considering he's more of a fly ball pitcher I think this will be a stellar matchup for him.

The Mets make a name for themselves with soft ground balls through the shift and flares into the outfield, but rarely do they convert fly balls into homers, ranking 18th there.

I think Anderson should get it done here against the Mets, and on offense the Dodgers should be able to break through against this New York bullpen if it can't scratch any across against deGrom.

Pick: Dodgers ML (+140)

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