Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Favorite
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Bieber
- After getting rained out on Friday, the Guardians and Tigers are set to resume their weekend series.
- Shane Bieber will start for Cleveland and Alex Faedo will get the ball for Detroit.
- Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Guardians vs. Tigers Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||4:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After getting rained out on Friday night, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers will commence what is now the second game of a now three-game series. Or does the make up game in July still make this a four-game series with this being game two of four?
Either way, the Guardians are playing the Tigers on Saturday afternoon and we have some betting to do.
The probable starters from Friday, Shane Bieber and Alex Faedo, have rolled over to Saturday. The Tigers look to continue to approach getting back on track, while the Guardians look to stop their recent slide.
Cleveland Guardians: Which Bieber Will Show Up?
The Guardians have dropped three straight games and are 3-7 in their past 10. Cleveland is looking to rebound after getting walked off by the Tigers on Thursday night.
Outside of the concern about Shane Bieber’s loss of velocity, decrease in swings and misses and general lack of “Bieber-ness” — he’s still fared relatively well this season.
However, he also has some really weird splits. Bieber has a 2.45 ERA on the road this season compared to a 5.51 ERA at home. Conversely, he has a 3.96 road FIP and a 1.96 home FIP.
That makes projecting Bieber a bit more difficult.
Additionally, after starting the season as the second best road offense against right handers, in terms of team wRC+, and being the highest scoring team on the road to start the season, the Guardians offense has steadily sunk in May.
In May the Guardians are 21st in runs scored and 20th in team wRC+.
One thing to note is that despite getting walked off on Thursday night the Guardians’ bullpen is still a top five unit over the past two weeks.
Detroit Tigers: Faedo Has Been Reliable in Rotation
The Detroit Tigers have been grinding their way out of the AL Central cellar. The Tigers won’t hit the .500 mark for the month of May, but this was the time of year in 2021 that the team’s fortunes seemed to turn.
Perhaps the Tigers are on the verge of putting together a run against a vulnerable Guardians team.
Alex Faedo has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers, as he’s turned in quality starts each time out this season. Additionally, he’s been relatively consistent at home, where he’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a 3.74 FIP over 10 innings in 2022.
This is a small sample, but the slumping Guardians offense may help Faedo pad his stats for a little bit longer.
Run support is the main concern for the Tigers as they are 21st in team wRC+ at home against right handers over the past two weeks and are 28th in home scoring in all of May.
However, despite numerous injuries, the Tigers’ bullpen has been able to cobble together the 15th best FIP and 9th best ERA over the past two weeks.
This game seems like it’s going to be close. There are a couple of small — yet pretty distinct edges — that the Guardians have. The Cleveland offense and bullpen are slightly better and that may be enough to sneak away with a win.
Bieber’s peripherals are not great on the road, but his familiarity with the Tigers’ lineup may help guide him to a quality start. Faedo may be due to regress, but run and bullpen support are the areas of concern here.
The Guardians moneyline is the play here, but if their value goes beyond -150, bail.
Pick: Guardians ML -140
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