The New York Mets host the Houston Astros on August 30, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Mets are favored by -122 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +107 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Mets Prediction
- Astros vs Mets Pick: Ethan Pecko Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-106, FanDuel)
My Astros vs Mets best bet is on Ethan Pecko to go over his strikeouts total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Mets Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +161 | 9 -109o / -110u | +107 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -191 | 9 -109o / -110u | -122 |
- Astros vs Mets moneyline: Astros +107, Mets -122
- Astros vs Mets over/under: 9 (-109o / -110u)
- Astros vs Mets spread: Mets -1.5 (+161 ), Astros +1.5 (-191)
Astros vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Ethan Pecko (RHP, HOU) | Stat | Zac Thornton (LHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 3-4 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 7.88/8.63 | ERA / xERA | 2.88/4.46 |
| 8.08/7.28 | FIP / xFIP | 3.85/3.96 |
| -5.1% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 26.9% | GB% | 43.4% |
| .250 | BABIP | .278 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 87 | Location+ | 94 |
Astros vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
It's safe to say that things have not gone to plan for Astros' starter Ethan Pecko through the first two outings of his big league career. Pecko has struggled mightily with command, walking seven batters over eight innings and posting a 7.88 ERA with few positive regression indicators.
However, what we've seen from Pecko in the big leagues is nowhere near the profile he displayed in the minors. Pecko in Triple-A this season held a 4.57 ERA but racked up 86 strikeouts and just 28 walks in nearly 83 innings of work.
The stuff is there when it's been commanded, as his Stuff+ sits at 101. It would appear that when his command dials in, Pecko has the potential to strike out plenty of hitters at the big-league level, and his recent struggles have set the bar too low this afternoon.
The Mets are far from an intimidating lineup against righties, holding at a team wRC+ of 99. While New York has shown they can flash power, especially with Juan Soto back in the lineup, there is plenty of swing-and-miss as they have below-average swinging strike and chase rates.
So, buy-low on Pecko this afternoon.
Pick: Ethan Pecko Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-106, FanDuel)
