The Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros on May 21, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
Read our Astros vs Rays prediction and MLB player prop below.
My Astros vs Rays Prediction
- Astros vs Rays Picks: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 Outs (+110, BetMGM)
My Astros vs Rays best bet is on Taj Bradley's pitching outs prop. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Astros vs Rays Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -150 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +125 |
Charlie Wright’s Astros vs Rays Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop
Tampa Bay's transition from Tropicana Field to Steinbrenner Field was expected to be a downgrade for its pitchers. Getting out of the dome exposed them to the warm Florida weather, which we have today (90 degrees and breezy).
Leaving Tropicana also meant the pitchers would no longer benefit from a park that boosted pitch characteristics, specifically for fastballs.
Taj Bradley's heater has lost induced movement and performed poorly this season (-4 run value). He's posted career-low Stuff+ (100) and Location+ (87) marks. He has a career-high 10.3% walk rate.
Bradley was limited to four innings last time out, with Miami getting to him for five earned runs. It was his third straight outing throwing fewer than 90 pitches, and he’s managed over 90 pitches in just three of his nine starts.
Right-handed hitters knocked in all five runs against him in that outing, which has been a theme all year. Bradley has allowed a healthy .238/.356/.467 slash line to the side this year.
The Astros will likely have at least eight righties in the lineup, and they rank ninth among MLB lineups in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month, behind the fifth-lowest strikeout rate. Wednesday’s projected lineup includes five hitters with walk rates above 9% against righties.
A righty-heavy lineup with good plate discipline is a bad recipe for Bradley’s current skill set.
Tampa got six innings from Ryan Pepiot on Tuesday and has an off-day on Thursday, so the bullpen is in a good spot for Wednesday. Long reliever Connor Seabold last pitched on Friday, which happened to be Bradley’s last start — he’ll be good to cover multiple innings if Bradley gets a quick hook.
Pick: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 Outs (+110, BetMGM)
