The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 2, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction
- Dodgers vs Pirates picks: Dodgers -1.5 (play to -140)
My Dodgers vs Pirates best bet is Dodgers -1.5 (play to -140). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Pirates Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -185 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +150 |
Sean Paul’s Dodgers vs Pirates Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Analysis
When the Dodgers brought the legendary Clayton Kershaw back for another year, it felt like a retirement tour.
However, here we are in September, and the Dodgers might not be in first place in the NL West without Kershaw.
The future Hall-of-Famer boasts a 3.08 ERA with a 3.81 xERA and a 3.62 FIP over 88 1/3 innings. He's totally adjusted his pitching style to cater to his diminished stuff. While his mid-to-high 90s fastball is a thing of the past, he can make his high 80s to low 90s look a lot faster by throwing a slider at a 41% clip and his legendary, looping curveball 17% of the time. That mix has led to Kershaw ranking in the 94th percentile in barrel rate and the 84th percentile in groundball rate.
The Dodgers' offense has struggled in August — well, to their standards, at least. They rank 12th in MLB with a 109 wRC+ while sporting an elite 10.5% walk rate. Even when the Dodgers' offense is "bad", they're still nearly a top-10 unit in wRC+ and make pitchers work.
Over the past two weeks, the Dodgers rank 18th with a 100 wRC+. The main difference between the two samples is that the first one includes Shohei Ohtani, who put up numbers like the best player in baseball, and the more recent sample is Ohtani posting a more mortal 100 wRC+. That simple fact makes it easier to buy into LA's offense.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Analysis
Opposing Kershaw is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is making his 17th career MLB start. Mlodzinski began the year in Pittsburgh's rotation after serving as a reliever last year. He posted a 5.67 ERA in nine starts from March to May, leading to a demotion to the minors. He's been back in the Majors for a month, serving as a reliever, and has cut his ERA to 3.86.
Mlodzinski complements his 3.86 ERA with a 4.43 xERA and a 3.56 FIP, but ranks in just the 16th percentile in xBA and the 20th percentile in average exit velocity. However, he will make the Dodgers beat him, as he walks just 2.46 batters per nine.
I'm just not sure I trust Mlodzinski in a starting role. We saw what he did as a starter earlier in the year, and some pitchers perform better with a reliever's routine rather than one of a starter.
The Pirates will aim to carry their August success into September. Although Pittsburgh had one of the worst offenses in baseball from April to July, it ranked 16th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ in August. The biggest change for them was that they boosted their walk rate to 10.1%, sitting only behind the Yankees and Dodgers.
However, I don't think the Pirates have the goods to conquer Kershaw. He doesn't walk batters, so they'll need to put the ball in play, and Kershaw loves generating soft ground balls, which the Pirates hit plenty of — posting a 45.5% ground-ball rate (third-worst in baseball in August), while ranking just 21st in hard-hit rate.
Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Dodgers are -180 on the ML, so I have no play there. However, I do see value in taking Los Angeles at -1.5 at -110 odds.
Kershaw should dominate Pittsburgh and force the Pirates into a bunch of grounders. I also think that after a fairly lousy series against the Diamondbacks, we'll see a different version of the Dodgers' offense.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (play to -140)
