Marlins vs Reds Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 9

Marlins vs Reds Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, August 9 article feature image

Pictured: Graham Ashcraft. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Marlins vs. Reds Odds

Wednesday, August 9
12:35 p.m. ET
Marlins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Reds Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-105 / -115
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Graham Ashcraft, since the All-Star break, has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Cincinnati Reds reside in second place in the National League Central, but are in a tight race with the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers.

Cincinnati is set to face Johnny Cueto and the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. Cueto is a reliable inning eater, but his past two starts have been subpar.

Both the Marlins and Reds have struggled mightily off of righties in the past month. The Reds have a few more key injuries, but the edge in this game likely goes to the better starting pitcher. So, let's dig into the Marlins vs. Reds odds and make a betting prediction.

Miami Marlins

Cueto has surrendered nine earned runs over 21 innings upon his return from the Injured List. On the season, he boasts an Average Exit Velocity under 87 mph, but has given up four earned runs in each of his past two starts. Cueto rarely gets shelled, but he hasn't been as impressive as Ashcraft lately.

The Marlins have a relatively healthy lineup. They have six batters with a xwOBA over .330 against righties in the past month, but also own a 85 wRC+ with a 5.9% walk rate and a .685 OPS. Overall, they haven't been impressive. If Ashcraft’s arsenal works, he should be in fine shape. Ashcraft’s primary issue has been with walking batters, but Miami rarely walks.

Miami has a great bullpen, but it has slipped slightly in the past month. The Marlins are above average with a 4.16 xFIP in the past month, but their walk rate (over 10%) is concerning.

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Cincinnati Reds

Ashcraft has a 5.18 ERA against a 5.32 xERA. However, since the All-Star Break, he carries a 2.30 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 31 1/3 innings. His 9.1% walk rate isn't great, but Miami isn't very patient and ranks fourth-to-last in walks.

The Reds have five active bats with a xwOBA over .325 off righties in the past month. Unfortunately, like the Marlins, the Reds have a well-below-average wRC+ (76) and a .687 OPS. Jake Fraley and Jonathan India being on the IL hinders this team, but facing a weaker Cueto should give them a small edge.

Graham Ashcraft, Nasty 96mph Dead Zone Cutter. ☠️✂️

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 4, 2023

Cincinnati will also cut into the relief advantage the Marlins usually hold over opponents. If Ashcraft limits walks, the bullpens should be about even.

Marlins vs. Reds Betting Pick

The Reds, even with two key players sidelined, should have the edge in this game. Ashcraft has been good, and Cueto has had a couple poor starts. Since both teams have been awful against right-handers lately, don't expect many fireworks. The Reds should have a better pitching performance and should be taken to -135.

Pick: Reds Moneyline | Play to -135

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