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Marlins vs. Reds MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Count on Starting Pitching Regression in Cincinnati (Monday, July 25)

Marlins vs. Reds MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Count on Starting Pitching Regression in Cincinnati (Monday, July 25) article feature image
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Via Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Lodolo #40 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians at Great American Ball Park on April 13, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio.

  • The Reds are short home favorites on Monday night against the Marlins.
  • Nick Lodolo gets the ball for Cincinnati while the Marlins will counter with Trevor Rogers.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Marlins vs. Reds Odds

Marlins Odds +114
Reds Odds -134
Over/Under 9 (-106/-114)
Time 6:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Monday night features the first matchup of this four-game series as the NL Central‘s Cincinnati Reds host the NL East‘s Miami Marlins. This is the first meeting between these two clubs this season.

Will we get fireworks in this first game, or can the pitchers keep this a low-scoring affair?

Can the Marlins Give Rogers Run Support?

The Miami Marlins have been involved in many low-scoring contests recently as there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 12 of their last 14 games (86%). I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Trevor Rogers is slated to take the mound for the Marlins.

Through 18 starts this season, Rogers is 4-9 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. While those numbers are very poor, Rogers has started to improve lately. Over his last four starts, Rogers possesses a 4.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. There have now been nine or fewer total runs scored in each of Rogers’ last six starts.

That being said, Rogers may not get much run support in this game as the Marlins are slated to go against left-hander Nick Lodolo. Since June 1st, the Marlins rank just 27th in the league in BA, 28th in SLG, 29th in OPS, and 29th in wOBA. Over their last 10 contests, the Marlins are averaging just 2.5 runs scored and 1.4 extra base hits per game.


Lodolo and the Reds Look for a Home Win

Like the Marlins, the Cincinnati Reds have been involved in some low-scoring contests recently as there have been nine or fewer total runs scored in 10 of their last 18 games (56%). As I mentioned above, the left-hander Lodolo is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati.

Through six starts this season, Lodolo is 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. While those numbers are awful, Lodolo’s metrics suggest that positive regression is looming.

This year, Lodolo boasts a .325 xwOBA, .241 xBA, and .365 xSLG. This positive regression has started to slowly develop recently for Lodolo. Over his last four starts, Lodolo is 2-1 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.

Lodolo will need a strong performance on the mound as the Reds will most likely not provide him much run support against the left-hander Rogers. Since June 1, the Reds rank just 17th in OPS and 16th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers at home.

Marlins-Reds Pick

We are backing the trends in this outing and going with Under 9 at -114 on FanDuel. I believe that the line is over-adjusted due to the poor surface-level numbers of each starting pitcher.

However, both pitchers have started to improve lately, which has led to more low-scoring games. Cincinnati’s offense is very average, while the Marlins have struggled mightily at the dish and have been shut out in four of their last six games.

The weather should not be a factor in this game as the forecast calls for a slight 5-7 mph breeze blowing from left-to-right. Over the last 10 meetings between these two clubs, the under is 8-2.

Pick: Under 9 (-114) | Play up to (-125)

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