Mets vs Dodgers Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Wednesday, April 19
Pictured: Freddie Freeman. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
Mets vs. Dodgers Odds
-105 / -115
-105 / -115
Los Angeles isn’t off to the start many expected. They started the year against Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco and the Cubs — all teams expected to finish in the bottom half of the league. However, the Dodgers Wednesday without a winning record.
Meanwhile, Mets fans seem to go from unrealistically optimistic to unrealistically pessimistic at the drop of a hat. Well, they may have a decent reason for the angst this year as they have already had to deal with injuries to All-Star closer Edwin Diaz, reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, and pitchers Jose Quintana and Carlos Carrasco.
However, the Mets are still off to a good start and have the offense and depth necessary to withstand the early injuries. New York will see a familiar face take the mound Wednesday afternoon, but who has the advantage in the series finale between the Dodgers and Mets?
New York might be without one 3-time Cy Young Award winner at the moment, but the Mets will give the ball to another one in Max Scherzer. Now in his second year with the Mets, Scherzer certainly looked the part in his first year in Queens. He went 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA. For comparison, the Cy Young-winning Sandy Alcantara posted a 2.28 ERA.
This season has started a bit shakier for Scherzer. Through three starts, he has a 4.41 ERA and some of his numbers are a cause for concern. His strikeout rate has gone from 30.6% last year to just 21.5% early this season. His walk rate has doubled, and his average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 20% of the league. His fastball velocity is down a tad and teams are crushing it to .426 wOBA and 61.9% hard-hit rate.
The offense has gotten the job done for the Mets. After finishing last season third in wRC+, they once again sit in the top 10 in both wRC+ and wOBA. Pete Alonso leads the league in home runs and he and Brandon Nimmo both have a wOBA over .400.
Former Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard will make his first start against his former team. His tenure in Queens started down the path toward becoming a franchise legend, but injuries derailed “Thor” and his time with the Mets ended on a sour note. The outspoken Syndergaard has even traded jabs with the Mets broadcast network.
You forgot to post my last line @SNYtvhttps://t.co/lGHIqpXSsApic.twitter.com/h6CB5cW0IF
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) May 26, 2022
Syndergaard signed with the Angels last offseason and was then flipped to Philadelphia at the trade deadline. He finished 2022 with a 3.94 ERA in 24 starts.
Following a litany of injuries, Syndergaard has been forced to reinvent himself as a pitcher. Back in 2016, Syndergaard threw his fastball over 35% of the time at an average of 99 miles per hour. He mixed that mostly with a sinker and slider, both around 20%.
Now his average velocity is right around 92 miles per hour, and he throws his sinker over 30% of the time and his changeup 27% of the time. He throws his fastball just 17% of the time. The results haven’t been great as he has a 5.63 ERA over his first three starts with the Dodgers.
His underlying metrics say he hasn’t been as bad as the ERA shows — his xERA is almost two runs lower at 3.69. However, his strikeout upside is virtually gone and teams have been able to get to him the second time through the order.
The Dodgers offense continues to do what we have come to expect. They rank in the top five in wOBA and wRC+. Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy are all crushing the ball, and rookie James Outman is sneakily hitting the ball really well.
Mets vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
I am not overly confident in either of these starting pitchers. Even though Syndergaard has an xERA two runs lower than his ERA, he’s still past his prime and relies on a 92-mile-per-hour sinker as his main pitch and struggles to strike batters out.
Scherzer is obviously the better pitcher in this game, but his numbers are concerning too. His xERA (4.43) is actually higher than Syndergaard’s, his strikeouts are way down and his walks are way up. Opponents are crushing his fastball.
Both of these teams rank top 10 in the league in wRC+, wOBA and runs, and have star power up and down the lineup. The Dodgers have hit the second-most homers and both teams can put up a crooked number in a hurry.
Despite a pair of household names on the mound, I am going to fade these pitchers and back the offenses to carry the total over on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: Over 8.5
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