The Washington Nationals host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 3, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
The series finale will feature a rookie matchup on the mound with Jacob Misiorowski for the Brewers and Brad Lord for the Nationals.
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Brewers vs Nationals Prediction
- Brewers vs Nationals picks: Over 8.5
My Brewers vs Nationals best bet is Over 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Nationals Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Brewers vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | Stat | RHP Brad Lord (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 2-5 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 2.70 / 2.24 | ERA / xERA | 3.27 / 4.43 |
| 3.10 / 2.80 | FIP / xFIP | 3.48 / 3.75 |
| 0.96 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 25.6 | K-BB% | 11.5 |
| 39.7 | GB% | 48.6 |
| 122 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 105 | Location+ | 100 |
Brewers vs Nationals Preview
The first two games of this series have produced 10 or more runs, with 25 as the total of Friday's opener, and the trend could continue today despite the starting pitchers' solid season.
Rookie Brad Lord will get the ball for the Nationals. Although he's had a strong debut season, mainly as a reliever, he has only made two starts so far.
His xERA is more than a point higher than his current ERA, which suggests negative regression is coming, and he will face the best MLB team this season: the Brewers.
Milwaukee has the second-best ranked offense since July 1st with a 121 wRC+ rating. If Lord manages to contain them, the Washington bullpen will likely not.
The Nats have the worst bullpen in MLB with a 5.72 ERA in 2025, almost half a point more than the next team.
And although Jacob Misiorowski has performed well, his last two starts have been short —four innings or fewer— and the Brewers bullpen ranks 17th in the majors with a 4.01 ERA.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation for the over today.
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments —such as in Colorado, Arizona, and Washington— tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5).
These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters increasing bullpen volatility.
Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals. This creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during regular-season games.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, BetMGM)
