The San Diego Padres host the Minnesota Twins on August 21, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Twins are favored by -119 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +105 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Padres Prediction
- Twins vs Padres Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Walks (+296 DraftKings, Play to +223)
My Twins vs Padres best bet is for Xander Bogaerts to go over his walks total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Padres Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -115o / -105u | -119 |
- Twins vs Padres moneyline: Twins +105, Padres -119
- Twins vs Padres over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Twins vs Padres spread: Twins -1.5 (+165), Twins -1.5 (+165)
Twins vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| Connor Prielipp (LHP, MIN) | Stat | Randy Vásquez (RHP, SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 5.34/4.27 | ERA / xERA | 4.30/5.84 |
| 4.13/4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.54/4.91 |
| 15.2% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 42.1% | GB% | 39.6% |
| .311 | BABIP | .301 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 104 | Location+ | 103 |
Twins vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
By Derek Carty
I'm looking at Xander Bogaerts to draw a walk at +296 on DraftKings. You're getting the best odds on the board here, and I like this bet all the way down to +223.
Bogaerts' walk rate has gone way up this year to a career high. I'm actually surprised we're being offered this much value because a lot of times when we see a jump like that, you expect regression and don't get much value on the board. But even though I'm projecting his walk rate under 10% going forward, his walk prop still shows clear value in this spot.
That value probably has a bit to do with Twins starter Connor Prielipp, who is not the best control pitcher. The Bat X projection system is actually higher on Prielipp's control than other systems (it has him with an 8), making it more bullish on his control than the rest of the market. Since we're still showing value despite that projection, I'm definitely going to hit it.
Bogaerts is a very patient hitter who takes a lot of pitches—especially early in the count—making this a great situational spot to back him to reach via a free pass.
Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 0.5 Walks (+296 DraftKings, Play to +223)
