MLB Odds, Picks: 3 Wednesday Best Bets for Blue Jays vs. Astros & More
Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros.
- Wednesday's MLB slate features plenty of action, especially throughout the afternoon.
- Our writers came through with three best bets for Wednesday, including picks for Blue Jays vs. Astros and more.
- Check out all three best bets for Wednesday's MLB slate below.
Wednesday's MLB slate features plenty of day baseball and our betting experts are all over it.
All 30 teams are in action with games starting from 12:35 p.m. ET to 8:10 p.m. ET. And what's better than baseball all day? Best bets throughout the day.
Our experts have identified a trio of bets with value, including a team total, a moneyline and a full-game total.
WEDNESDAY'S MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs. Rays
Wednesday, April 19 12:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cincinnati Reds Under 4 (-133) | Play to 3.5  |
By D.J. James
Drew Rasmussen was a massive piece to the Tampa Bay Rays’ season-opening win streak. He struggled in his latest outing, allowing five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, but he was next to un-hittable against the Washington Nationals and Oakland A’s.
The Reds will likely struggle against Rasmussen. Taking the Reds to go under their team total is the correct call given how Rasmussen has fared against weaker lineups.
The Reds have been about average against right-handers, but most don't compare to Rasmussen. They have a team walk rate above 11% and hold a wRC+ of 99 (about average). That said, Rasmussen forces teams to go after bad pitches. The Reds have four hitters with a .340+ xwOBA off of righties. That's not terrible, but they haven't faced Rasmussen’s arsenal.
The Reds will have a tough time with Rasmussen. They have shown they can walk against righties, but Rasmussen doesn't walk many. Some hitters in the Reds' lineup strike out often, which is another edge to Rasmussen. The Rays also have at least four arms that can perform well in relief. Take the Reds under their team total at 4 (-133), and play to 3.5 (-120).
Pick: Cincinnati Reds Under 4 (-133) | Play to 3.5
Mets vs. Dodgers
Wednesday, April 19 3:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Mets Moneyline (-125) | Play to -140  |
Look, Max Scherzer should be fine. It’s been a rough three-game start and perhaps adjusting to the pitch clock has been a struggle for the vet, but he’s too good to be held down.
I am far less optimistic about Noah Syndergaard. His peripherals suggest he’s due for some positive regression (5.69 ERA, 3.69 xERA), but his fastball velocity is at a career-low (92.7 mph), and I doubt he continues to strike out 25% of batters (projections have him under 20%).
The best way to describe how I feel about these pitchers is to look at Stuff+.
Scherzer hasn’t missed a beat in the new year, following up his 106 Stuff+ rating from last year with a 106 Stuff+ in early 2023. Meanwhile, Syndergaard is down 13 points, from 87 to 74.
I think the most likely outcome is Scherzer turns back into a stud while Syndergaard devolves into a gas can.
It’s impossible to say the Mets have as good a lineup as the Dodgers, especially when the Dodgers are crushing the ball (they are tops in the league in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and xwOBA).
However, the Mets will do what the Mets do, put balls in play and generate runs, and I don’t see the corpse of Thor standing in the way.
I could see Scherzer standing in the Dodgers' way, given how dominant he’s been against them. Scherzer has a lifetime 2.59 ERA against the dynastic Dodgers, including a 1.89 ERA with 20 strikeouts and four walks over the past five seasons.
And either way, I don’t care as much about New York’s lineup disadvantages as I do about its defensive, baserunning and bullpen advantages.
Through 18 games, the Dodgers are 20th in reliever xFIP, 19th in FanGraphs BsR grades and 18th in defensive runs saved. Meanwhile, the Mets are top five in all three metrics.
I feel pretty good about the Mets' edges here, at least at any price better than -140.
Author's note: I wrote this before the end of the Tuesday night's, so I’m not entirely sure of the bullpen status heading into Wednesday’s game. That said, it would take heavy usage from David Robertson, Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith and John Curtiss to take me off the Mets.
Pick: Mets Moneyline |
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Astros vs. Blue Jays
Wednesday, April 19 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 9 (-120) | Play to 10 |
By D.J. James
Luis García and the Houston Astros play host to José Berríos and the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday. These are possibly the two weakest pitchers on these teams and bettors can rejoice with them facing one another.
In the young 2023 season, García has a 7.71 ERA against a 7.52 xERA. He has allowed 12 earned runs in 14 innings. He also ranks in the 7th percentile in fastball velocity, meaning he won't blow it by hitters. Batters are also averaging a launch angle over 19 degrees and showing no trouble getting the ball in the air with García on the bump.
On the other side, Berríos isn't much better. He ranks in the 12th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the sixth percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He does have a tendency to strike hitters out more often, but still holds a 7.98 ERA against a 5.03 xERA. Even though his xERA is nearly three points lower, it is still awful.
Offensively, the Blue Jays have a team wRC+ of 119, ranking fourth against right-handers. Houston has improved from a rough start to a wRC+ of 102. Both teams have OBPs over .335, so expect each to take advantage of weak starting pitchers.
Finally, both bullpens have been above league average, but have hovered around a 3.85 xFIP-4.13 xFIP. They have weak spots and will show them if they need to utilize more relievers than usual.
Take the over in this game at 9 (-120), and play to 10 (-110).
Pick: Over 9 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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