It's a busy Saturday in Major League Baseball with 15 games on the slate, and our baseball experts are all over with their MLB best bets.
Among their MLB picks for July 12 are three props for the following games: Reds vs Mets, Athletics vs Guardians and Red Sox vs Cubs.
Find our three MLB best bets for Saturday, July 12, below.
MLB Best Bets, Picks, Props, Predictions — 7/19
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs Mets Pitching Prop: Clay Holmes Outs
The Mets have made efforts to cap Clay Holmes' workload recently in his first big-league season as a starter. They had fellow starter Sean Manaea follow him in his final start before the All-Star Break, limiting Holmes to 81 pitches and five innings.
It was Holmes' sixth consecutive start of fewer than six innings. He hasn't topped 90 pitches in any of his three starts this month.
I'm not expecting another follower situation here, but the Mets will likely have a tight leash on Holmes the rest of the season. He's already 30+ innings beyond his previous career high.
Performance has also been a question mark for Holmes.
As the innings have piled up, the production has tailed off. Holmes has an ugly 18:18 K:BB over his last six starts. His strikeout rate is down to 14% in that stretch.
Holmes still has a respectable 4.20 ERA in that span, but his xFIP and SIERA are both over 5.00.
The Reds have scuffled against right-handed pitchers recently, but they work at-bats. They are tied for eighth in pitches seen per plate appearance.
Getting Austin Hays and Noelvi Marte back in the mix also gives Cincinnati's lineup some added punch.
Pick: Clay Holmes Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105)
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Athletics vs Guardians Home Run Prop
Guardians starter Logan Allen has been a big plus matchup for HRs in his career (1.56 HR/9 to lefties and a 1.38 HR/9 to righties).
The weather in Cleveland is a big plus for hitting with temps in the mid 80s and and six mph winds blowing out.
I have the true odds for Brent Rooker at +300, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Brent Rooker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360)
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Red Sox vs Cubs Pitching Prop: Fade Bello
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 16.02 pitching outs for Red Sox starter Brayan Bello compared to 17.54 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 60% of the time, resulting in a 32% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $31.71. (Note: The best line is +120 at Fanatics. At even money, this bet is just okay.)
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Brayan Bello Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+120)
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