MLB Best Bets Friday: 6 Expert Picks & Predictions (4/19)
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We’ve got a 15-game MLB slate on Friday, starting with Marlins vs Cubs at Wrigley Field in the early afternoon and ending with Diamondbacks vs Giants at Oracle Park.
Our staff of MLB betting experts have identified six wagers over five games, including two strikeout props, two over/unders and two sides (moneyline and run line).
Buckle up and read on for our MLB Best Bets Friday: Expert Picks & Predictions.
MLB Best Bets Friday: 6 Expert Picks & Predictions (4/19)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from the Friday slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
| 7:20 p.m. | ||
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
White Sox vs. Phillies
By D.J. James
The Philadelphia Phillies have been above average against left-handers this season, but a 104 wRC+ may not get the job done against the only bright spot on the Chicago White Sox right now — Garret Crochet.
He had a blip in his last outing against the Cincinnati Reds, but he stabilized after one bad inning. He boasts a strikeout rate of over 35% and a 4.5% walk rate. His xERA is an incredible 1.91 because he has a great pitching arsenal.
The Phils will throw Spencer Turnbull against the White Sox. Most teams could pitch anything to the Sox right now and potentially throw a shutout.
Turnbull has started three games and allowed three earned runs in 15 innings pitched. His groundball rate is above average, and so is his strikeout rate.
Philly may be decent at hitting, but the White Sox cannot hit without Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada in the lineup. They are cellar dwellers with a 73 wRC+ and sub-. 600 OPS.
The Phillies have a sub-4.00 xFIP in relief with a 25%-plus strikeout rate. The White Sox have a couple of potential arms to throw after Crochet logs more than five or six innings.
Look for this game to go Under the total.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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It's been a bleak start to the season for the White Sox, but the only bright spot has been Garrett Crochet, one of the best pitchers in baseball. Through his first four starts, he's posted a 1.91 xERA, 12.54 K/9 rate, and only a 1.59 BB/9 rate.
What makes him so good is his fastball. He throws it a little over 53% at over 96 mph on average, and it's only allowing a .187 xwOBA. Crochet is up in the 91st percentile in terms of extension to home plate, which, as a left-handed pitcher, always gives you a big-time advantage.
Crochet's fastball has a Stuff+ of 107, which is well above the MLB average. He also has a wicked slider with a Stuff+ rating of 135, which is in the top 10 in baseball.
He will be at an advantage in this matchup against the Phillies, who have the split advantage. Philadelphia has four left-handed bats in its lineup, and two of its best hitters, Schwarber and Harper, are lefties.
Spencer Turnbull has been a pleasant surprise for the Phillies, beginning the season with a 3.40 xERA through his first three starts. He struggled towards the end of last season with the Tigers after coming off a long-term injury, but since his velocity is down, he's becoming less reliant on his fastball and throwing his offspeed more often, which is a reason why he's had a good start to 2024.
The White Sox are the worst lineup in baseball by wOBA and have lost two of their best hitters, Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada, to injury.
I only have 3.6 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on F5 Under 4.5 runs at -125.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-125)
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Angels vs. Reds
By John Feltman
Tyler Anderson gets the ball for the Angels and faces the Reds at Great American Ballpark on Friday evening.
Anderson struggled to get through 5 innings in his last start but still managed to strike out 4. His CSW rate is an impressive 29.6%, and his swinging strike rate is 14.6%.
The Reds may have a lot of firepower, but they are strikeout-happy, ranking bottom-five among MLB lineups in strikeouts per game.
Anderson should feast on Friday night as long as he doesn't give up too many long balls. I expect him to be highly efficient and generate plenty of strikeouts.
There is a juiced Over 4.5 (-160) at DraftKings right now, but I'd also recommend taking over 5.5 K's at +120. I think six strikeouts are within reach as long as he keeps his pitch count down.
Pick: Tyler Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
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Athletics vs. Guardians
By Kenny Ducey
Joe Boyle is one of the most under-appreciated young arms in the game right now, pumping in one of the fastest four-seamers from a rather terrifying 6-foot-7 frame. He’s struck out plenty of major-league hitters, though walks have held him back from truly breaking out.
Boyle will face one of the most swing-happy teams in the league on Friday when he sees the Guardians, who rank second-to-last among MLB teams in walk rate.
Coming off of his best outing to date in that area, in which he issued just one free pass over five innings against the Nationals, we should expect Boyle to pitch competently to a Guardians team that is (somehow) finding some success with home runs and barrels but shouldn’t be afforded any here.
Boyle’s excellent Hard-Hit and Barrel rates should make him a menace for Cleveland. With his upper-90s fastball, it’s hard to envision the team ranked 28th in fastball run value doing damage.
On the flip side, it’s no secret that Triston McKenzie isn’t pitching his best, with a significant drop in velocity and some unsightly strikeout and walk numbers.
Sure, Oakland isn’t the sexiest pick in the world, but its struggles to make contact here shouldn’t present themselves, and the A's should win this game behind a strong outing from Boyle.
Pick: Athletics ML (+150 | Play to +130)
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Rangers vs. Braves
By John Feltman
We are returning to the well with the Atlanta Braves on Friday night when they host the Texas Rangers.
The Braves picked up a solid series victory over the Houston Astros earlier this week.
Now, they'll face southpaw Andrew Heaney, who has struggled to begin the season. The current Braves hitters are 11-for-33 (.333) lifetime against Heaney.
Heaney has been awful to begin the year, averaging only 7.5 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9. He allows a lot of contact and currently boasts an awful 23.9 CSW%.
His velocity is down from last year, averaging roughly 91 mph on his fastball. Even if he throws the kitchen sink at the Braves, it is an excellent opportunity to back their bats, who have a ton of right-handers who mash off-speed pitches.
Chris Sale looked like his old self in his most recent start. After the Rangers had their way with the Detroit pitching staff, I expect them to be held at bay this evening.
I'm betting on the Braves to win comfortably.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+102)
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Blue Jays vs. Padres
By Cody Goggin
Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez signed a five-year deal with the Blue Jays this offseason. He pitched in Cuba and Japan but didn’t pitch at all after the WBC in 2023, putting him a little behind to start this year.
Rodriguez struck out 10 batters in 6.1 innings in two minor league starts. Last weekend, he made his major league debut against the Rockies, striking out six of his 16 batters in 3 2/3 innings.
Rodriguez will likely not go super deep into this game, but he can rack up strikeouts quickly. He has displayed this already with his impressive 38.7% Whiff rate in his first start.
This is taking a risk on an unproven player, but that's why I believe there is an edge on this line. I don’t think the books are reacting heavily enough to what Rodriguez showed in his first start.
While there is the risk of him getting blown up early, he could also eclipse this strikeout total in just a few innings.
Pick: Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
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