MLB Odds, Picks: 3 Best Bets for Tuesday, Including Royals vs Tigers & Orioles vs Dodgers
Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Tarik Skubal
- We have a full slate of MLB action on Tuesday.
- With 15 games on deck, our MLB writers came through with three best bets on Tuesday, including picks for Royals vs Tigers and Orioles vs Dodgers.
- Check out all three of our best bets for Tuesday's MLB games below.
It's another jam-packed Tuesday in Major League Baseball. The Reds and Giants will conclude last night's suspended contest and after that, there's a ripe 15-game slate all taking place under the lights.
Here are our best MLB bets for Tuesay, July 18th.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Dodgers vs. Orioles
By D.J. James
Michael Grove is a horrendous pitcher, and given how great of an organization the Los Angeles Dodgers are, it gets perplexing when they keep trotting him out to start.
He will throw on Tuesday against the Baltimore Orioles, who can hammer righties. On the season, Grove owns a 6.89 ERA and 5.09 xERA. His xSLG ranks in the 15th percentile, and his Barrel Rate ranks in the 27th percentile.
The Orioles pitch one of their best starters in Tyler Wells. His ERA is 3.18 against a 3.74 xERA. He ranks in the middle of the pack in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate, so there is not much of an edge over Grove there, but he strikes out more than 25% of hitters, while walking 5.9%.
Since July 1 off of righties, the Dodgers have a 114 wRC+ with a 10.5% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate. The Orioles have a 112 wRC+ with a 8.4% walk rate and 21.2% strikeout rate.
In relief, the O’s have a 3.73 xFIP, while Los Angeles has a 3.70 xFIP. There is no edge here for either side.
Given that the lineups are relatively even and the relievers do not have much of a gap, this game comes down to the starting pitcher. Wells is clearly the more reliable option than Grove. In addition, since Wells has the better odds of throwing a decent outing, he will put less strain on the relief corps.
Take the Orioles to -140.
Guardians vs. Pirates
By Tony Sartori
The second installment of this three-game series gets underway Tuesday with right-hander Mitch Keller taking the mound for Pittsburgh, and he should be an excellent candidate to back in this contest.
Through 19 starts this season, the All-Star is 9-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, ranking in the 74th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
This strong campaign is likely to continue against Cleveland, a team whom he held hitless through five innings in his lone career start against. On the other side, left-hander Logan Allen is slated to take the mound for the Guardians.
Also putting together a solid season, Allen is 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 12 starts. Both starting pitchers should take care of their business in this matchup, especially considering how poor the hitting is on each side.
Entering this game, both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS and home runs. Finally, there have been eight or fewer totalruns scored in five of the past nine meetings between these two clubs.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-104)
Tigers vs. Royals
Tarik Skubal’s season ended on Aug. 1 last year, yet he still led the Tigers in games started, innings pitched and WAR. He was a bright spot on a horrendous Detroit team and a joy to watch pitch.
Folks, Skubal might be in for a huge second half.
His fastball is sitting 95-96, up about two ticks from last year. The changeup still looks stellar (23.8% Swinging-Strike). He has not allowed a fly ball on 31 sliders thrown (seriously, he has a 100% ground ball rate).
Tarik Skubal has really impressed in his first two starts back.
8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB (7.1%), 11 K (39.3%)
Velocity is up.
– FF: 96.0 (94.1 in 2022)
– FS: 96.7 (94.8 in 2022)
CH is still dominant (.000 BAA, 50% Whiff)
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 11, 2023
This is all small sample size stuff. However, I loved him last year, and any improvement would put him very high on my “bet-able pitchers” list.
Daniel Lynch is not on that list. But I am intrigued by his changeup (20.9% Swinging-Strike, 57.1% ground ball), as it’s fueling a half-decent batted-ball profile (31.2% Hard-Hit, 87.6 mph avg. EV). If he could increase the effectiveness of his slider, we might have something.
Either way, any concerns with either pitcher probably don’t matter. The Tigers and Royals are bottom 10 offenses against left-handed pitching, and they both have a sub-.630 OPS against slider-change mixes (KCR .625, DET .616).
So, between my love for Skubal, indifference to Lynch and disdain for these two offenses, the Under 8.5 looks like a fine best bet for Tuesday.
Adding to this angle are double-digit breezes blowing in from right-center field (-20% Home Run factor, per BallParkPal) and a Detroit bullpen with some upside (1.02 WHIP, .187 BAA over the past two weeks).