MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Rangers vs Blue Jays, Padres vs Dodgers, More (Tuesday, September 12)

MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Rangers vs Blue Jays, Padres vs Dodgers, More (Tuesday, September 12) article feature image

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts.

  • Our analysts are targeting three plays today with their MLB best bets for Tuesday's slate.
  • Find their expert MLB picks and predictions below.

It's a very busy Tuesday in Major League Baseball, including two doubleheaders which gives us 17 games total to find value on.

There's three in particular that our analysts are eyeing: Reds vs. Tigers, Rangers vs. Blue Jays and Padres vs. Dodgers.

Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, September 12th.

MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
6:40 p.m.
7:07 p.m.
10:10 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Reds vs. Tigers

Tuesday, September 12
6:40 p.m. ET
Reds F5 ML (-118)

By Kevin Rogers

The Tigers have won seven of their last 10 games as they are back in action tonight at home to welcome in the Reds.

Cincinnati snapped a three-game slide with Sunday’s 7-1 blowout of St. Louis and sends southpaw Brandon Williamson to the mound tonight.

Williamson is making his first start since August 29 as he has been sidelined after testing positive for COVID. The Cincinnati left-hander is 0-2-1 in the first five innings of his past three starts, but the Reds’ offense also didn’t score a run for him in the past two outings in the first half of the game.

Detroit owns some ugly numbers heading into tonight in spite of playing solid baseball lately. The Tigers are riding an 0-13-2 mark in the first five innings of their last 15 home series openers, while getting shut out six straight times.

Joey Wentz is 4-12-1 in the first five innings of his 17 starts for Detroit this season, including a 2-6-1 mark at Comerica Park.

The Reds are in the midst of a 9-3-3 record in their past 15 series openers in the first five innings, including a 5-1-1 ledger on the road since the All-Star break.

Let’s back the Reds in the first five innings and play it up to -120.

Pick: Reds F5 ML (-118)

Rangers vs. Blue Jays

Tuesday, September 12
7:07 p.m. ET
Under 8.5 (-120)

By Tony Sartori

The playoff implications are massive in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, and a good pitching duel could be in store on Tuesday.

Right-hander Max Scherzer takes the mound for Texas and should be a good candidate to back. The future Hall-of-Famer is 12-6 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which are solid surface-level stats that are weighed down by his recent outlier performance against the Houston Astros.

Scherzer's 3.29 xERA and .205 xBA this year suggests that performance is nothing to be too concerned about. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Blue Jays. There were eight or fewer total runs scored in eight of those 11 outings.

Left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu takes the mound for Toronto. After missing most of the campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ryu has come back in great form.

Over his seven starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He will be tested mightily against this Rangers lineup, but until he proves otherwise, he should continue to be trusted.

Both lineups are obviously very strong, but that is why we are catching 8.5 in a Scherzer/Ryu matchup.

I would rather lay more juice at 8.5 than take the Under at 8 if the market moves before first pitch.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-120)

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Padres vs. Dodgers

Tuesday, September 12
10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Padres ML (+140)

By D.J. James

Lance Lynn had a period of a few weeks after the trade deadline, where he looked like the Lance Lynn of old. That period has come and gone, and he will be facing a pretty strong lineup against right-handed pitching lately in the San Diego Padres.

Lynn has a 6.09 ERA against a 4.88 xERA, so expectations are still better than reality. At the same time, neither of these numbers are strong. He has an average exit velocity allowed of 88.9 mph, which is comparable to years past, but his barrel rate is up to 10.6%, almost a 4% jump from last year.

His hard-hit rate is also up nearly 2% to 40.6%. His pitching run value has plummeted, and he now ranks in the first percentile in the league. The movement on his key fastballs just is not as effective as it was just a couple of years ago.

Wacha has a 2.99 ERA against a 4.53 xERA. He is getting lucky, but his average exit velocity allowed is 88.1 mph, his barrel rate is 7.9% and his hard-hit rate is 35.2%.

His pitching run value ranks in the 95th percentile, but expectations are not too keen on him because his groundball rate is only 34.6%.

That said, the Dodgers have a 149 wRC+ and .922 OPS off of righties in the last two weeks. San Diego has a 113 wRC+ and .756 OPS.

With Lynn slumping far more than Wacha has been, taking the moneyline on the Padres holds value, especially with a comparable bullpen over the last two weeks.

Take the Padres to +105.

Pick: Padres ML (+140)

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