MLB Best Bet for Dodgers vs Padres on Sunday, May 7

Sunday afternoons and baseball just seem to go together. There's nothing quite like watching baseball all day Sunday, but of course, those Sunday afternoons get even better with some action on the games.

Sunday, May 7, features a full slate of MLB games and our experts have found betting value on a pair of moneylines and a total. Continue reading for their picks and analysis. Our best MLB bets for Sunday, May 7 are below.

Sunday's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time	Pick
	1:35 p.m. ET	Blue Jays Moneyline
	1:35 p.m. ET	Red Sox Moneyline
	7:10 p.m. ET	Over 8
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates

Sunday, May 6 1:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Blue Jays Moneyline

By Nick Shlain

The Toronto Blue Jays have won the first two games of their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Blue Jays are now 11-11 on the road and 9-3 at home this season. Toronto is 20-14, but seven games out of first place in the American League East. One of my favorite bets on Sunday's slate is the Blue Jays moneyline at -132 on FanDuel Sportsbook. I expect Toronto to improve on their record with another victory in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates will have Roansy Contreras on the mound in this one. Contreras has a 4.09 ERA this season, but his advanced metrics are a bit worse as he has a 4.32 xERA and a 5.16 xFIP. Contreras is due for regression, which is unlikely to end well against this potent Toronto lineup, which is 11th in runs per game this season.

Yusei Kikuchi will start for the Blue Jays. Kikuchi has a 4.02 ERA backed up by a 4.00 xFIP. He’s struck out 30 batters in 31 1/3 innings. I’ll go with the more solid starter and deeper lineup to get the job done and complete the sweep.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline

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Red Sox vs. Phillies

Sunday, May 6 1:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV

Red Sox Moneyline

By BJ Cunningham

Tanner Houck has been pretty unlucky through six starts with his ERA sitting at 5.34, but his xERA at 4.00. For whatever reason, hitters have been getting to both his sinker and fastball despite the Stuff+ on both being well above 100. Both pitches are also allowing an xBA under .250. The problem Houck usually runs into is that he's significantly worse against lefties than righties. In fact, his wOBA allowed is almost 100 points higher. That is a concern with the Phillies having four left-handed bats in their lineup.

Taijuan Walker though has been a significantly worse pitcher than Houck this season, as he has a 5.32 xERA along with a 100 Pitching+ rating. Walker has two really good pitches in his splitter and slider, but the splitter is the only pitch in his arsenal allowing an xwOBA under .350. Additionally, the Red Sox have the second best wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Boston has also seemed to solve the bullpen issues that plagued it last season. The Red Sox are top five in both Stuff+ and Pitching+.

I have the Red Sox projected at -101, so I like the value on them at +112.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline

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Dodgers vs. Padres

Sunday, May 6 7:10 p.m. ET ESPN

Over 8

By Tanner McGrath

The Dodgers and Padres face off in what should be an exciting Sunday Night Baseball contest.

The Dodgers are going through roster turnover hell, but are still in first place as the lineup is raking. The Dodgers are top-five in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and, ultimately, xwOBA.

Max Muncy is baseball’s home run leader (12) and cooking up a 1.009 OPS. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts haven’t been studs, but they’ll always produce at an above-average rate.

Meanwhile, the Padres' roster is littered with stars. However, the Padres’ superstars haven’t been producing at a superstar level.

Juan Soto looks unsettled at the plate and Manny Machado’s batted-ball profile is a mess. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been fine in his return, but has 13 strikeouts to three walks.

That being said, San Diego is 9-4 over its past 13 games and boasts the fourth-best wRC+ over the past two weeks.

Now when it comes to the starters in this matchup, there are some questions.

Julio Urias could’ve been the Cy Young Award winner last season, but is now producing like a middle-rotation guy.

His fly-ball rate is down 6% and hitters are teeing off on his fastball (.531 xSLG, 49% hard-hit rate). He’s introduced an effective cutter, but hasn’t thrown it enough to compensate. Overall, his numbers are considerably worse than last year (3.86 ERA, 3.39 xERA).

Historically, Urias has forced those lazy fly balls with some of baseball’s best fastball spin rates. However, that’s not happening right now:

The Stuff+ rate on his fastball is down from 106 to 88, which spells trouble.

Joe Musgrove has also been a bit confusing. His xERA is below 4.00, and there’s nothing in his metrics that sounds alarm bells. His Stuff+ is actually up and his ground-ball rate is 50%.

So, what gives?

Well, a .375 BABIP, a 53.2% strand rate and an unfair start in Mexico City where he allowed three home runs at 7,000 feet of altitude, which juiced his HR/FB rate to 44.4%.

The Dodgers have been spanking right-handed pitching and the Padres have been crushing left-handed pitching.

The left-handed Urias and right-handed Musgrove are pitchers we should feel good about, but I’m not sold on either.

Meanwhile, neither defense has been great and I power rate both bullpens somewhat low.

Ultimately, I’ll take a hard-hitting over, especially at the relatively low total of 8 (-105).

I’m betting on a high-scoring Sunday Night Baseball affair in San Diego, and I’d recommend you do the same.

Pick: Over 8 | Play to 8.5

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