Read below for my 4 MLB Home Run Picks Today, including player props for Royals vs Pirates (6:40 PM ET, PNC Park) and more on Friday, September 18.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs Pirates
The spot here is an average one, which makes the odds here too high for Oneil Cruz.
Randy Dobnak has been a below average matchup for lefty power, allowing a 1.03 HR/9 this season, but he grades out as an average matchup for lefty power.
The ballpark isn't great, but Cruz has some of the most power in the league and I have the true odds on this home run prop below +500.
Pick: Oneil Cruz Home Run
| | | |
Tigers vs White Sox
The spot here isn't a great one, but the odds are more than high enough to justify this bet.
David Sandlin grades out as an average matchup for righty power and the weather over in Chicago is below average for hitting with temps in the high 60 and wind blowing in.
Even factoring in these factors, I have the true odds on this home run prop below +600.
Pick: Spencer Torkelson Home Run
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Mariners vs Rockies
Mickey Monaik has slowed down after his massive start, but the power is still there and the odds are a bit too high today.
Bryan Woo is having a below average season and he's been an above average matchup for lefty power allowing a 1.2 HR/9. Woo has also been drastically worse on the road this season allowing a 1.26 HR/9 compared to a .71 HR/9 at home and he's due for some negative regression both on the road and vs. lefties.
I have the true odds on this home run prop around +420.
Pick: Mickey Moniak Home Run
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Yankees vs Diamondbacks
The odds are a bit too high on Ketel Marte today given the spot.
Gerrit Cole is still a good pitcher, but he's struggled heavily with lefty power, allowing a large 1.69 HR/9 this season.
Marte hasn't been great recently, but the power is still there and I have the true odds on this home run prop around +520.
Pick: Ketel Marte Home Run
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