For Friday, May 23, I'm on five MLB home run props: Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki (against the Reds), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (against the Rays), and Matt Olson and Austin Riley (against the Padres).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday night.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, May 23
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 23
Kyle Tucker (+380)
at Reds (SP: RHP Hunter Greene)
Kyle Tucker has been great this season and his underlying numbers have been similar to last season, when he hit 23 home runs in 78 games.
The ballpark today is a big upgrade as Great American Ball Park has been the best in the league over the last few years for lefty power.
Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene is a good pitcher, but he gives up a lot of fly balls and hard contact to lefties and grades out as a well above average matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds around +300 for Tucker today.
Seiya Suzuki (+425)
at Reds (SP: RHP Hunter Greene)
Seiya Suzuki has been great to start the season with 12 bombs thus far and great underlying power numbers.
Greene has struggled with righty power in his career and grades out as a big plus matchup.
I have the true odds on Suzuki 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400)
at Rays (SP: RHP Drew Rasmussen)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has cost me a lot of money this season, but the odds here are way too good to pass up.
The matchup vs. Drew Rasmussen isn't a great one, but the ballpark (George M. Steinbrenner Field) is a big plus. The weather in Tampa Bay is great for hitting with temperatures in the 90s during gametime and winds blowing out slightly.
I have the true odds around +450.
Matt Olson (+400)
vs. Padres (SP: RHP Nick Pivetta)
Matt Olson has struggled by his standards this season, but he still has 11 homers on the season and his underlying power numbers have been the best of his career.
He gets a great matchup vs. Nick Pivetta, who has been a gas can for lefty power in his career (1.5 HR/9). The weather today is good with temps in the high 70s during gametime.
I have the true odds on Olson around +300.
Austin Riley (+330)
vs. Padres (SP: RHP Nick Pivetta)
Like Olson, Austin Riley hasn't been great this season, but the underlying power number have been consistent with his career numbers, so the bombs should be coming soon.
Pivetta also presents as a plus matchup for Riley. I have the true odds around +280 today, making this a good EV bet.
