For Wednesday, June 18, I'm on four MLB home run props: Cal Raleigh (against the Red S0x), Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley (against the Mets), and Manny Machado (against the Dodgers).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, June 18
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for June 18
Cal Raleigh (+375)
vs. Blue Jays (SP: LHP Garrett Crochet)
Red Sox starter Garrett Crochet has been good this season, but he's only been a bit above average against right-handed power hitters and he's due for some negative regression vs. righties.
Crochet has only allowed .8 HR/9 this season to righties, but sits at a .98 HR/9 career number.
Cal Raleigh may be the best HR hitter in the league at the moment — with 27 HRs on the season in 71 games, there is no way his line should be this high.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+400)
vs. Mets (SP: RHP Paul Blackburn)
Mets starter Paul Blackburn has been good over a short sample size this season, but there is no reason to believe that will continue.
Blackburn has been a big plus matchup for righty power in his career (1.39 HR/9) despite pitching in one of the most pitcher friendly ballpark his entire career. The weather is a plus for hitting with temps in the mid 80s and a high dewpoint.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has been crushing the ball this season with seven home runs in 22 games and an elite 19.3% barrel rate.
I have the true odds here 100 points lower making this a great EV bet.
Austin Riley (+470)
vs. Mets (SP: RHP Paul Blackburn)
Everything I said about Blackburn applies here with Austin Riley, who has struggled this season, but the underlying numbers are similar to years past when he was hitting close to 40 homers a year.
I have the true odds over 100 points lower today, making this a great EV bet.
Manny Machado (+340)
at Dodgers (SP: RHP Emmet Sheehan)
As of right now it looks like it will be Emmet Sheehan opening the game for the Dodgers, with Justin Wrobleski going in for long relief.
Both pitchers look like a positive matchup for righty power with Sheehan grading out as a plus matchup for homers and Wrobleski being a gas can for righty power (2.37 HR/9 in his short career).
Manny Machado has been in good form this month and the weather isn't bad for hitting with temps in the high 70s and wind blowing out.
I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great EV bet.
