Yesterday didn't go our way, though fortunately, two of our losses were on half-unit single-team bets.
There aren't many chances to turn it around on Thursday, but I found three wagers on the small slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks & Predictions — May 15
Nationals vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. AJ Smith-Shawver
Most of this is driven by the Braves, who are implied for more than five runs against Trevor Williams.
Williams is both bad overall and early, with a 5.88 ERA that jumps north of eight his first time through the order. He's also particularly bad against lefties, who are hitting .396 with a 1.070 OPS against him this season.
While his ERA has been better in the past, he's always struggled against left-handed hitters, with a career OPS allowed over .800. That's particularly relevant here because three of the first four Braves hitters are lefties.
I'm showing a better edge on the game line than the Braves team line because the top of the Nationals lineup is potent, while AJ Smith-Shawver has a higher ERA and xFIP his first time through the order. With that said, I wouldn't fault anyone who wanted to take the +200 shot at the Braves team line.
Rays vs. Blue Jays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Zack Littell vs. Kevin Gausman
Betting the NRFI in this series has been one of the few bright spots this week, with wins each of the past two days.
Let's try it one more time today.
Both starters have much better numbers early in games. Kevin Gausman's first-time-through-the-order ERA sits at 1.83. Littell's is a shakier 4.00, but he has a stronger xFIP. He's still a reasonable 5-3 in favor of the NRFI in his eight starts, despite facing much more formidable lineups at the top (Yankees, Padres, Diamondbacks) than he draws tonight.
The Blue Jays' early lineup hitters are struggling this season relative to expectations, so this is a winnable matchup.
Astros vs. Rangers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. Jacob deGrom
I'm not sure why Caesars is hanging a line so far off the rest of the market, but they're at -130 on the NRFI when every other book is -150 or worse.
This game has a seven-run total and features Cy Young candidate Hunter Brown taking on the resurgent Jacob deGrom.
The Astros have some solid hitters, but the rest of the market is sending a strong signal here. If you take this line, watch for arbitrage opportunities at other books throughout the day — the YRFI may move to +130 or better at some spots.
